Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen real estate market in January 2026 shows a significant shift towards residential properties, which dominate the market despite an overall decline in new home transactions, indicating a change in buyer sentiment and market confidence [1][2]. Group 1: New Home Market Performance - The total number of new home transactions in January was only 1,692 units, a substantial month-on-month decline of 34.9% [1]. - Luxury homes saw a drastic drop in transactions, with only 229 units sold, down 71.7% from the previous month, while business apartments fell by 86.9% with only 56 units sold [1]. - Residential properties accounted for 88.6% of total transactions, with 1,499 units sold, despite a slight month-on-month decrease of 9.4% [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Pricing Dynamics - Only 8 new projects were launched in January, a decrease of 14 from the previous month, with only 4 being residential [2]. - The average selling price of new residential properties was 81,208 yuan per square meter, showing a slight decline but remaining high [2]. - The inventory of new residential properties reached 3.187 million square meters, with a depletion cycle extending to 16.34 months, an increase of 1.04 months from the previous month [2]. Group 3: Transaction Structure and Buyer Behavior - The price range of 40,000 to 60,000 yuan per square meter accounted for 45.5% of transactions, a significant increase of 10.2% month-on-month, indicating a shift towards more affordable housing [3]. - The segment of homes priced between 300,000 to 500,000 yuan led the market with a 41.3% share, reflecting the demand from the new middle class in Shenzhen [5]. - The second-hand housing market saw a rise in transactions, with 5,281 units sold, a 6.9% increase, marking the highest level in nine months [5]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The market is experiencing a structural shift from high-end luxury properties to more affordable options, driven by tighter credit conditions and a focus on asset liquidity [5]. - The second-hand market is showing signs of recovery, with increased transaction volumes despite a decline in the leading index [5][7]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, new supply is expected to remain low, potentially leading to a seasonal decline in transaction volumes in February [2][7].

Group 1: Sales Performance of Real Estate Companies - In January 2026, the top three real estate companies in Shenzhen by sales were China Overseas Land & Investment with 22.2 billion yuan, China Resources Land with 16.0 billion yuan, and Excellence Group with 9.6 billion yuan [2][5][18] - The sales threshold for the top 5 companies reached 6.1 billion yuan, while the top 10 and top 20 thresholds were 3.2 billion yuan and 1.2 billion yuan, respectively [5][18] Group 2: Policy Dynamics - Shenzhen introduced a management method for allocated affordable housing, effective from March 1, 2026, which prohibits any conversion of allocated affordable housing into commercial housing [5][19] - The application conditions for allocated affordable housing include having Shenzhen household registration, no self-owned housing in Shenzhen, and at least five years of social insurance contributions [6][23] Group 3: Market Performance - In January 2026, the number of new residential units signed in Shenzhen was 2,579, a decrease of 10.7% month-on-month and 49.3% year-on-year, attributed to a slowdown in new project launches [9][24] - The second-hand residential transactions saw an increase, with 5,281 units transferred, marking a year-on-year growth of 15.96% and a month-on-month increase of 6.88% [11][26] - As of the end of January, the inventory of new residential units in Shenzhen was 29,950, a decrease of 380 units from the previous month, due to a reduction in new launches and some inventory being converted to sales [13][28] Group 4: Market Outlook - The Shenzhen real estate market continued to show signs of recovery in January, with strong sales performance from quality projects indicating a gradual increase in market confidence [15][30] - The market is expected to maintain a "steady progress with quality first" trend as the traditional peak season for property transactions approaches after the Spring Festival [30]