Workflow
Housing Price Bottom
icon
Search documents
2026 房价会触底吗?来算算
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-18 12:44
Core Viewpoint - The conclusion is that housing prices are far from bottoming out, and buying a house in the next 5-10 years will not offer good value for money [1] Group 1: Perspectives on Housing Market - The perspective of "foolish buyers" suggests that many have been misled into thinking that purchasing a home is essential without considering price fluctuations [3][5] - The "rational buyer" perspective emphasizes the importance of the rental yield, stating that a rental yield greater than 3% is necessary for home buying to be financially viable [7][8] - The "smart buyer" perspective indicates that real estate investment can be evaluated through discounted cash flow analysis, revealing potential future returns [12] Group 2: Rental Yield Analysis - The current average rental yield in China is around 1%, which is insufficient for home buying compared to bank dividends [8][10] - A property purchased for 1 million yuan may only generate an annual rental income of about 10,000 yuan, making it less attractive than bank investments [10] - For the housing market to recover, rental yields need to reach approximately 3%, which would require a significant increase in rental prices [10] Group 3: Emotional Value of Housing - The emotional value of owning a home is highlighted, with many individuals willing to pay extra for the sense of belonging that comes with homeownership [14][17] - The article suggests that the desire for better living conditions drives the obsession with homeownership rather than mere investment [17] - Ultimately, the decision to invest in real estate involves weighing the emotional value against financial considerations [17]