Macro Economic Environment - The current economic slowdown in China, along with limited wage growth, is suppressing housing demand, reducing the likelihood of significant price increases [3] - The government's emphasis on "housing for living, not speculation" and increased construction of affordable housing are diminishing the scarcity of commercial properties, potentially impacting overall housing prices [3] Urban Development and Population Flow - First-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai continue to attract a large influx of young people, maintaining strong demand for properties in prime locations, which may lead to an appreciation of a 1.5 million property to between 1.6 million and 1.7 million in five years [4] - Conversely, third and fourth-tier cities, especially those experiencing population outflows, face a surplus of housing supply, increasing the risk of price declines, with values potentially dropping to between 1.2 million and 1.4 million [4] Property Specific Factors - The future value of a 1.5 million property will vary significantly based on location, age, and community environment, with properties near public resources likely to retain or appreciate in value, while those in remote areas may drop to around 1 million or lower [5] - The era of uniform price increases has ended, leading to a more pronounced differentiation in the real estate market, where high-quality properties in growing cities may remain stable or appreciate, while lower-quality properties may continue to depreciate [5]

Overall Trend - Short-term fluctuations are expected, but long-term stability is anticipated [2] - In the first half of the year, core urban second-hand housing prices may rise by 5%-10% due to policy easing and pent-up demand release. However, if policies tighten or economic recovery is weaker than expected in the second half, housing prices may enter a plateau phase, with some suburban new homes facing price pressure [2] - Regional differentiation is intensifying, with core areas (within the fourth ring) showing strong price resilience supported by scarce resources like education and healthcare, potentially maintaining high prices of 80,000-150,000 yuan per square meter [2] Key Influencing Factors - The policy environment remains unchanged with a focus on "housing for living, not speculation," and slight adjustments to purchase restrictions. Mortgage rates are expected to remain low (first home loan rates at 3.25%-3.8%) [2] - The government aims to stabilize the market through increased supply of affordable housing and promoting inventory digestion [2] - The supply-demand relationship is easing due to increased affordable housing supply and a slowdown in population growth, although the scarcity of quality housing in core areas continues to support prices [2] Regional Breakdown Forecast - In core areas (Xicheng, Dongcheng, Haidian), new home prices are expected to rise slightly (0.1%-2%), while second-hand home prices may see a slight decline [2] - In suburban areas (Chaoyang, Fengtai), prices are expected to rise steadily due to improvement-driven demand [2] - In remote suburbs and surrounding areas (Yanjiao, Gu'an), high inventory and insufficient amenities may lead to a price decline of 5%-10% [2] Considerations - Predictions carry significant uncertainty, with core area prices influenced by both policy and economic factors, potentially leading to slight fluctuations [2] - Investment recommendations focus on properties in core areas with strong amenities and product strength, while avoiding regions with high inventory in remote suburbs [2]