Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Property - **Market Outlook**: The industry view is categorized as "In-Line" with expectations of continued challenges in the physical market for 2026, as indicated by related reports from December 2025 and January 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - **Tax Refund Announcement**: The Finance Ministry announced a tax refund on income tax for homeowners who sell their homes and purchase new ones within a year, applicable for 2026-27. This is expected to provide marginal assistance to home sales [5]. - **Market Conditions**: - A significant portion of homeowners are "underwater," facing over a 35% correction in home prices from the peak nationwide [5]. - There is a bearish sentiment among residents regarding home prices, leading to a low appetite for taking on additional leverage in the current macroeconomic environment [5]. - **Need for Stimulus**: Restoring resident confidence in income and home prices through proactive fiscal-backed stimulus is deemed essential for reversing the ongoing housing decline [5]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Analysts suggest focusing on quality "alpha" names with self-help stories, specifically recommending companies like CR Land, Seazen A, and C&D [5]. Company Valuations - **China Resources Land Ltd. (1109.HK)**: - Estimated NAV of HK$56.20/share, with components including HK$20.83 from development properties and HK$42.67 from investment properties. A 30% discount is applied based on a developers' scorecard [6]. - **C&D International Investment Group Ltd (1908.HK)**: - Estimated NAV of HK$36.17/share, with HK$43.78/share from development properties and a 35% discount applied based on a developers' scorecard [7]. - **Seazen Holdings Company Ltd. (601155.SS)**: - Estimated NAV of Rmb32.80/share, with Rmb12.64 from development properties and a 40% discount applied based on a developers' scorecard [8]. Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: - Stronger-than-expected contracted sales and accelerated openings of new malls could positively impact the companies [10][11][12]. - **Downside Risks**: - Weaker-than-expected contracted sales and slower-than-expected openings of new shopping malls pose risks to the companies [10][11][12][13]. Additional Insights - **Analyst Ratings**: The report includes a list of companies with their respective ratings, indicating a mix of "Overweight," "Equal-weight," and "Underweight" designations, reflecting varying levels of confidence in their performance [68]. - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment remains cautious, with analysts advising investors to be selective and focus on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential [5][68]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the China property market.