Summary of the Conference Call on China Humanoid Robotics Industry Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The humanoid robotics industry in China is expected to undergo significant commercialization in 2026, with component suppliers poised to benefit first from this growth [1][4] - **Sales Forecast**: The sales volume forecast for China humanoid robots has been doubled from 14,000 to 28,000 units for 2026, with business sales expected to be the primary driver [2][32] Key Highlights for 2026 1. **Revenue Growth**: Component companies are anticipated to see increased revenues and profits from humanoid robots, with Leaderdrive expected to contribute 25%-30% of its revenue from humanoids in 2026/27 [4][21] 2. **Market Dynamics**: The industry is experiencing a shake-out and consolidation phase, with a focus on finding viable commercialization cases for integrators [9] 3. **Cost Deflation**: The average Bill of Materials (BoM) costs in China are projected to decline by 16% year-over-year, despite increasing specifications, due to economies of scale [9][49] 4. **Technological Focus**: The development of 'brain' technology is becoming a key focus, shifting from hardware to software advancements [9] 5. **Global Expansion**: As commercialization begins in China, the industry is expected to go global [9] 6. **Stock Market Volatility**: The market is likely to experience catalyst-driven volatility, particularly with humanoid integrator IPOs [9] 7. **Non-Humanoid Forms**: Non-humanoid robots are expected to see faster near-term commercialization, offering better immediate ROI [9] Financial Projections - **Market Size**: The humanoid market in China is projected to grow to $480 billion by 2040, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 72% [34][35] - **Component Market**: The global humanoid component market is expected to reach $780 billion by 2040, with a CAGR of 52% [39][20] Risks and Challenges - **Commercialization Delays**: Key risks include potential delays in commercialization and production by leading humanoid companies, as well as changes in technology routes [4] - **Market Sentiment**: The market sentiment may be affected by the fading hype around R&D and entertainment applications, which are expected to weaken in 2026/27 [31] - **Data Bottlenecks**: The effectiveness of humanoid robots is still limited by data availability and the need for robust foundational models [56] Stock Implications - **Updated Stock List**: A total of 46 companies are included in the updated China humanoid value chain stock list, with notable mentions such as Hengli Hydraulic, Inovance, and Shuanghuan [4][28] - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies like Leaderdrive are expected to benefit significantly from the humanoid market, with specific revenue contributions forecasted [4][21] Conclusion The humanoid robotics industry in China is on the brink of significant growth, with a strong emphasis on commercialization and technological advancements. However, potential risks related to delays and market sentiment must be closely monitored as the industry evolves.

Summary of the Conference Call on Humanoid Robots Industry Industry Overview - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from laboratory iterations to commercial applications in vertical scenarios such as inspection, healthcare, logistics, and manufacturing [1][3] - The cost of core components like lead screws has significantly decreased, enabling faster iterations and closer proximity to mass production for companies like Tesla [1][3] Key Insights - Humanoid robots currently operate at approximately 0.3 times the efficiency of humans, with increasing demand from the ToB (business-to-business) sector [4] - The focus for future development will be on upper limb capabilities and brain technology, with dexterous hands being a critical hardware component [1][4] - Major players in the humanoid robot market include Huawei, Xiaomi, and Tesla, while emerging companies have opportunities to challenge these leaders [1][4] Market Projections - Expected shipment volumes for humanoid robots are projected to reach nearly 20,000 units in 2025 and 100,000 units in 2026, indicating a rapid growth phase [1][4] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the second half of the year will focus on specific market segments and technological iterations, particularly in sensors, reducers, and high-density motors [1][5] - The supply chain is expected to see significant developments, with Tesla's supply chain already forming, and new opportunities arising in sensor technology and precision components [5][6] Technological Developments - The rapid iteration cycle of humanoid robots (approximately 2-3 months) allows for quicker technological advancements compared to electric vehicles, which typically have a 12-18 month cycle [7] - Key areas of technological focus include dexterous hands, lead screws, pick and place mechanisms, reducers, electronic skin, and six-dimensional force sensors [9][21] Supply Chain Dynamics - Core value and technological barriers in the supply chain are concentrated in components such as hand joints, lead screws, six-dimensional force sensors, and harmonic reducers [8] - The lead screw market has seen a dramatic price drop, with ball screw prices decreasing from several thousand yuan to under 500 yuan [12] Emerging Technologies - PEEK materials are gaining traction in the industry, with potential price reductions leading to broader applications in robotics [10][15] - The electronic skin technology is still evolving, with various approaches being explored, including resistive and magnetic methods [13][19] - Six-dimensional force sensors face challenges in cost and mass production, with ongoing developments needed in new technology routes [14][20] Conclusion - The humanoid robot industry is poised for significant growth, driven by technological advancements and increasing commercial applications. Investment opportunities are abundant, particularly in supply chain components and emerging technologies. Key players and new entrants alike will play crucial roles in shaping the future landscape of this industry [21]