Summary of the Conference Call on Robotics Market Outlook Industry Overview - The global market for humanoid and quadruped robots is still in its early stages, with mass production timelines progressing slower than expected due to supply chain complexities and technological challenges [1][2] - Key players include Tesla (TSLA US, Not rated) and Figure AI in humanoids, and Boston Dynamics in quadrupeds, with no other competitors showing comparable readiness for volume manufacturing [1] Core Insights - **Tesla's Optimus Projections**: Tesla is expected to deliver 60,000–80,000 units of the Optimus robot in 2026, with uncertainties surrounding supply chain and production cadence [2] - **China's Competitive Edge**: The Chinese humanoid and quadruped robot industry is anticipated to outpace Tesla in mass production due to simplified designs that lower manufacturing costs. Leading companies like UBTech and Unitree aim for annual production of 50,000–100,000 units by 2026 [3][4] - **Supply Chain Fragmentation**: The supply chain in China is highly fragmented, with unique mechanical architectures for each robot, limiting component-level standardization and supplier margins [4] Market Dynamics - Initial deployments of Tesla's robots will focus on internal factory tasks, with broader commercial availability expected in 2027 [2] - The 2026 robotics market remains constrained, with uncertain volume ramp-ups and evolving designs, limiting earnings contributions in the near term [5] Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong growth in core non-robotics businesses are preferred, as humanoid exposure is seen as a long-term option rather than a near-term earnings driver [7] - Selective positivity towards companies with technological advantages in critical subsystems is noted, as they are expected to benefit from the anticipated production ramp-up in 2026 [8] - **Buy Ratings**: - Shuanghuan Driveline (002472 CH) is rated Buy due to its confirmation of the Optimus chain and growth in consumer segments [8] - Orbbec (688322 CH) is highlighted as a top pick in robotics, benefiting from its strong position in the vision area and growth in 3D printing [8] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical risks affecting supply chains, particularly for Tesla, which may need to diversify its supplier base outside of China [2] - The anticipated ramp-up in production is expected to focus on commercial-service applications that are quick to monetize, such as warehouse inspections and security patrolling [4]