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大麦娱乐-互联网调研核心要点
2026-01-06 02:23
Summary of Damai Entertainment Holdings Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Damai Entertainment Holdings Ltd - **Ticker**: 1060.HK - **Market Cap**: US$3,471 million - **Current Share Price**: HK$0.91 - **Price Target**: HK$1.20, implying a 32% upside from the current price [6][9] Key Highlights Business Segments - **Offline Entertainment Business**: Focus on ticketing and live events, with no significant change in market share. Management is confident in maintaining a dominant position without expecting a higher take-rate in ticketing [9][10]. - **IP Business**: Management emphasizes the platform nature of the business, not relying on any single IP, and operates over 300 IP metrics. There is potential for expanding IP product genres [9][10]. - **Film Business**: Plans to scale back investments in the film sector, indicating a strategic shift towards more profitable areas [9][10]. Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: Expected revenue growth driven by the content business rather than concert ticketing. The content segment reached breakeven in 2024 and is anticipated to maintain fast revenue growth with improving margins [9][10]. - **EBITDA Targets**: Management targets EBITDA breakeven in fiscal year 2026, supported by cost optimization efforts [9][10]. - **Projected Financials**: - **Revenue (Rmb million)**: - FY2025: 6,702 - FY2026e: 7,814 - FY2027e: 9,054 - FY2028e: 10,323 - **EBITDA (Rmb million)**: - FY2025: 558 - FY2026e: 978 - FY2027e: 1,397 - FY2028e: 1,767 [6][9]. Market Dynamics - **Overseas Expansion**: Launched the overseas ticketing platform MAISEAT in November 2025, with expectations of generating revenue in 2027 after hosting concerts for top celebrities [9][10]. - **Impact of Japan-China Tension**: Limited impact on sales momentum, although some project pipelines were delayed. Marketing activities have been reduced [9][10]. Risks - **Upside Risks**: Faster-than-expected revenue growth in the IP and ticketing businesses, and successful cooperation with top IPs [12]. - **Downside Risks**: Slower-than-expected revenue growth and potential loss of cooperation with key IPs [12]. Valuation Methodology - **SOTP Valuation**: - Ticketing Business: 15x FY2027e EV/EBITDA - IP Business: 30x FY2027e EV/EBITDA - **Implied Valuation**: 25x FY2027e P/E and 0.8x PEG [10]. Conclusion Damai Entertainment Holdings Ltd is positioned for growth through its content business and overseas expansion, while strategically scaling back its film operations. The company aims for EBITDA breakeven in 2026, with a focus on optimizing costs and expanding its IP offerings. The current market dynamics and management's confidence in maintaining market share present a cautiously optimistic outlook for investors.