Summary of Miniso (MNSO) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Miniso (MNSO) - **Market Cap**: $5.2 billion - **Enterprise Value**: $5.8 billion - **Current Price**: $16.76 - **12-Month Price Target**: $25.00 (Upside: 49.2%) [1][20] Preliminary Financial Results - **2025 Revenue Expectation**: Rmb 21,440 million - 21,445 million (slightly above Goldman Sachs estimate of Rmb 21,307 million, implying year-over-year growth of ~26%, ahead of guidance of 25%) [1] - **Operating Profit**: Rmb 3,300 million - 3,305 million (slightly above Goldman Sachs estimate of Rmb 3,292 million) [1] - **Adjusted Operating Profit**: Rmb 3,665 million - 3,675 million (slightly below Goldman Sachs estimate of Rmb 3.69 billion, at the lower end of guidance of Rmb 3.65 billion - 3.75 billion) [1] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: Rmb 2,890 million - 2,900 million (slightly above Goldman Sachs estimate of Rmb 2,866 million) [1] - **Reported Net Profit**: Rmb 1,320 million - 1,330 million (below Goldman Sachs estimate of Rmb 1,496 million, due to higher-than-expected losses related to Yonghui and changes in redemption liabilities) [1] Growth Metrics - **4Q25 Revenue Growth**: 33% (2% above Goldman Sachs estimate) [19] - **4Q25 Adjusted Operating Profit Growth**: 12% (2% below Goldman Sachs estimate) [19] - **2026 Start**: Solid performance with GMV growth of >25% in China and >50% in North America during the first two months of 2026 [1] Market Performance - **Jan-Feb Performance**: Strong in both China and North America, supported by solid Chinese New Year consumption and effective product strategy [2] - **Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG)**: High single-digit percentage in China [2] Future Focus Areas - **Upcoming Full Results Report**: Scheduled for March 31, with a briefing at 5 PM HKT [3] - **Key Focus Points**: 1. 2026 outlook and quarterly trajectory 2. Margin expectations and improvements 3. Product strategy, including IP mix and local sourcing in the US market 4. Store network upgrades in China 5. Marketing and investment plans 6. Updates on Top Toy and potential cost inflation [18] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Metrics**: - P/E Ratio: 16.1 (2024), 12.4 (2025E), 10.6 (2026E), 9.0 (2027E) [12] - Dividend Yield: 3.1% (2024), 4.1% (2025E), 4.7% (2026E), 5.6% (2027E) [12] - **Key Risks**: 1. Lower store productivity in China due to competition and product issues 2. Poor SSSG recovery and global store expansion 3. Geopolitical risks 4. Higher-than-expected operating expenses and investments 5. Yonghui's earnings performance [20] Conclusion Miniso's preliminary results indicate a robust start to 2026, with strong growth metrics and a solid outlook. However, margin expectations and potential risks related to competition and operational costs remain critical areas for investor focus.

Summary of Conference Call Notes on China IP Retailers and Toy Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese IP retail and toy industry, specifically analyzing companies like Pop Mart and Miniso, along with their sales performance and product launches in February 2026. Key Points on Pop Mart - **Sales Growth**: Pop Mart's online sales growth in China slowed in February, attributed to reduced supply and a high base from January when NeZha was popular. The growth rate was reported at 31% year-over-year, down from over 300% in January [7][9]. - **Product Launches**: New plush toy series under Crybaby and Angry Molly were launched, but their sales volume was lower than previous successful series. For instance, Angry Molly series had over 10,000 sales on Douyin and Tmall, while Crybaby's series had over 20,000 [9]. - **Secondary Market Performance**: The secondary market prices for most IPs remained stable, with Labubu's prices showing a sequential improvement, currently at a discount of approximately 20% [9][17]. - **New Collaborations**: A new plush toy series in collaboration with Sanrio is set to launch, which could attract new customers, although sustainability of sales is a concern [9][17]. - **Sales Performance**: Overall, Pop Mart's sales performance during the Chinese New Year (CNY) was strong, with high single-digit same-store sales growth (SSSG) [9]. Key Points on Miniso - **Sales Growth**: Miniso reported a high single-digit SSSG in the Chinese market during CNY, with credit card sales growth in the US at 50% in February, down from 65% in January [9][28]. - **Margin Focus**: Margin performance is highlighted as a key area of focus for investors, indicating potential concerns about profitability amidst sales growth [9]. - **Product Launches**: Miniso's new product launches were relatively slow, consistent with historical seasonality, focusing on existing IPs [9]. Other Important Insights - **US Market Trends**: In the US, credit card sales growth for Pop Mart decelerated to 65% in February from 150% in January. The pricing for new plush toy series was set lower than previous launches, indicating a strategic shift [27][33]. - **Consumer Sentiment**: The consumer sentiment in various regions showed mixed trends, with improvements in the US and Singapore, while sentiment in Indonesia deteriorated [49]. - **Market Competition**: The report notes that the upcoming film slate for 2026/27 could serve as a catalyst for US toy companies, suggesting a competitive landscape that needs monitoring [26]. Conclusion - The Chinese IP retail and toy industry is experiencing a mix of growth and challenges, with companies like Pop Mart and Miniso navigating supply constraints and changing consumer preferences. The focus on product launches, secondary market performance, and margin sustainability will be critical for future performance.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese IP retail and toy industry, specifically highlighting companies such as Pop Mart, Miniso, and Bloks, along with their recent performance and market strategies [1][6][7][8]. Key Points Pop Mart - **Sales Growth**: Pop Mart's online sales growth in China accelerated in January, attributed to increased supply on platforms like Tmall and Douyin. January recorded the highest sales volume over the past year [1][11]. - **Product Launches**: Successful new product launches, particularly the Twinkle Twinkle's Crush On You series and Skullpanda's My Little Pony series, positively impacted sales. The Crush On You series maintained a secondary price premium of approximately 40% [1][9]. - **Market Confidence**: The company's share buyback program helped restore market confidence [1]. - **Sales Data**: Combined sales on Tmall and Douyin flagship stores increased over 300% year-on-year in January, compared to a 53% increase in December [9]. Miniso - **Partnerships and Marketing**: Miniso partnered with the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala, launching a co-branded IP "马优优". However, initial sales were muted, with less than 50 units sold by February 8 [1][50]. - **Sales Growth**: US credit card sales growth was approximately 65% in January, down from 75% in December [26][28]. - **IP Development**: The CEO highlighted plans to develop 100 proprietary IPs over the next decade and expand the Miniso Land format globally [50]. Bloks - **Product Launches**: Bloks experienced a slowdown in new product launches in January compared to December, consistent with seasonal trends [1][60]. - **Sales Performance**: Overall sales on Tmall and Douyin were down 10% year-on-year in January, attributed to timing distortions around the Chinese New Year shopping window [10]. Financial Forecasts and Valuations - **Earnings Forecasts**: The earnings forecasts for the three covered IP retailers were updated, with target prices lowered for all [2][55][56]. - **Pop Mart**: Expected low 30% year-on-year growth in topline and bottom line for 2026, with a new target price of HK$298 [57][59]. - **Miniso**: Adjusted target price lowered to US$25/HK$49 per ADR/H-share, with a focus on mid-high teens growth in net profit [56]. - **Bloks**: Target price revised down to HK$63, reflecting a slower growth outlook [60]. Market Sentiment and Consumer Confidence - **US Market**: Consumer confidence in the US declined sharply, while sentiment improved in the Euro Area, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The US credit card sales growth for Pop Mart and Miniso showed signs of deceleration [24][25][47]. - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Issues related to Pokemon and Detective Conan in China were noted amidst geopolitical tensions between China and Japan [49]. Additional Insights - **Secondary Market Trends**: Prices for Labubu's plush toys in the secondary market showed a downward trend, with discounts deepening from low single digits to 20% [9][32]. - **Online Sales Trends**: The online sales run-rate for plush toys in February remained broadly on track compared to January, indicating stable demand [1][9]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Chinese IP retail and toy industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso, with a 12-month price target of $23.40 for ADR and HK$46.00 for H-share, indicating an upside potential of 27.9% and 33.1% respectively [14][17]. Core Insights - Management is confident in achieving revenue growth acceleration in 2025, targeting a year-over-year increase of 23% compared to 2024, with a focus on low teens percentage growth in Miniso China and around 40% growth in overseas markets [1][8]. - Despite expected margin pressure in the short term, management anticipates a return to positive operating profit growth by the third quarter of 2025, with a narrowing of margin contraction [1][2]. - The company plans to close 300-400 underperforming stores in China, with expectations of a return to net store count growth in the second half of 2025 [1][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, Miniso aims for revenue of Rmb20,554 million, with an operating profit (OP) target of Rmb3.6 billion to Rmb3.8 billion, compared to Rmb3.2 billion in the previous year [17]. - In 2Q25, management expects topline growth of 18%-21%, with specific growth rates of low teens for Miniso China and 25%-30% for overseas markets [8]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product offerings in the US, with IP-related products making up 60-70% of sales, and plans to increase local sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts [12][15]. - Miniso's store expansion strategy includes targeting 80-100 net new store openings in 2025, with a significant portion being DTC stores [10][11]. Operational Efficiency - Management noted that logistics costs have declined, and there is potential for cost savings through improved store productivity and geographical concentration of store openings [10][12]. - The average payback period for new stores is reported to be 15-18 months, with daily sales averaging nearly Rmb10,000, significantly above the breakeven point [13].