Summary of India-China Trade and Investment Relationship Industry Overview - The report focuses on the bilateral trade and investment relationship between India and China, highlighting its evolution and future prospects [3][4]. Key Points Trade Dynamics - India's trade deficit with China is the largest among its trade partners, amounting to **US$118 billion** [10][49]. - China's trade surplus with India is the largest among Asian economies, totaling **US$121 billion** [10]. - Bilateral trade between India and China has nearly doubled from **US$89 billion** in December 2015 to **US$161 billion** in July 2025 [10]. - China is India's largest bilateral trade partner [10]. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) - FDI flows from China to India have significantly decreased from **US$1.4 billion** (3.6% of total inflows) in 2015 to **US$0.09 billion** (0.2% of total inflows) in 2024 [10]. - India needs to align its manufacturing production structure with global demand to attract more FDI [7]. Manufacturing and Supply Chain - India is looking to integrate into the global manufacturing value chain, with China playing a pivotal role by providing FDI, technological know-how, and critical inputs [4][27]. - China accounts for **41%** of global manufacturing output, making it a crucial supplier for India [37][39]. - The share of global value chain-related trade rose to **50%** of global trade in 2022, indicating a shift towards more complex supply chains [9]. Sectoral Insights - Key sectors for trade include transport equipment and capital goods, which have seen increases in global export shares [9]. - India's imports from China are heavily weighted towards capital goods, which accounted for **56%** of its imports in 2024 [53]. Economic Imperatives - The report emphasizes the need for India to boost its manufacturing capabilities to address unemployment challenges and to leverage China's technological expertise [77]. - The geopolitical landscape poses risks to the growth of the trade relationship, with potential slowdowns due to political tensions [4][77]. Future Outlook - The bilateral trade relationship is expected to grow significantly, driven by India's need for manufacturing inputs and China's need for new markets amid declining exports to the US [56][77]. - India represents a significant growth opportunity for Chinese companies, with only **3.5%** of China's exports currently going to India [56]. Additional Insights - The report draws parallels with Vietnam's trade relationship with China, suggesting that India could similarly benefit from increased trade and investment [67]. - The shift in India's import mix towards capital goods indicates a growing reliance on China for manufacturing inputs [48][52]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the critical interdependencies between India and China, emphasizing the potential for growth in their trade and investment relationship while acknowledging the geopolitical risks involved.