Chris Tumi with Morgan Stanley Private Wealth joins us here at Post9. Nice to see you. >> Nice to see you.>> Do you have high hopes for 26 and and strong returns like this year. >> We do. We do expect it to be a good year next year.>> You do. Why so. What's going to carry it.>> I mean, I look I think there's a lot of secular tailwinds. You talked about it earlier on the show. You've got a situation where earnings look very promising. You've got breath improving.You're in a situation where you actually have ...

for more on the markets. Let's get to our next guest. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley, CIO and chief US equity strategist.You've come on and you always have some some things that make me um scratch my head or or that I haven't thought. And one one of the things you said not too long ago was that the labor market may have already uh bottomed and that any economic slowdown you saw as kind of a rolling sector uh one to the next slowdown and that could be in the past too. >> That's right.So I mean our call for quit ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market remains stable despite economic uncertainties, with expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2][3][6]. Economic Indicators - Current Treasury yields are at 4.1% for the 10-year and 3.6% for the 2-year, indicating a rangebound environment for yields [1][3]. - Corporate earnings are performing well, and the economy is progressing steadily, supported by gradual rate cuts from the Fed [2][3]. Federal Reserve Insights - There is a division within the Federal Reserve regarding the necessity of further rate cuts, but the forward guidance remains unchanged [5][6]. - Chair Powell's forecasts align with the median committee view, which anticipates three rate cuts this year, suggesting another cut in December [6][8]. Inflation and Employment - Inflation, excluding tariffs, appears close to the Fed's 2% target, but consumer sentiment remains low due to rising living costs and stagnant wage growth [11][12]. - The labor market data indicates a gradual cooling trend, with recent ADP reports showing negative job growth for September [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold is experiencing its best performance in decades, driven by economic uncertainty, geopolitical factors, and the risks of inflation and currency devaluation [1][2]. Group 1: Price Performance - Gold prices surged to an all-time high of over $4,000 per ounce for the first time, indicating strong demand for the precious metal [3][7]. - Since the beginning of 2024, gold prices have approximately doubled from around $2,000 to $4,000 [5]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Bank of America analysts noted that gold has been on a steady rise for seven consecutive weeks, a pattern that historically precedes a potential price correction [4]. - The current price of gold is 20% above the 200-day simple moving average, suggesting it may be nearing the peak of the latest rally [5]. - Previous rallies have shown that gold typically peaks when trading 25% above the simple moving average, indicating a possible tipping point for the current cycle [6]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven amid ongoing political and economic instability [7].

Core Viewpoint - Recent comments from policymakers indicate a divergence of opinions regarding the future direction of the economy [1] Group 1 - Policymakers express differing viewpoints on economic trends [1]

Group 1 - The expectation is for a 25 basis point cut from the Fed, with potential dissent from some governors who have signaled for a 50 basis point cut [1][3] - The labor market is showing signs of slowdown, with global job growth at its lowest since 2011, indicating a jobless expansion [4] - The current economic expansion is driven more by fiscal and business investment rather than job gains, with unemployment at 4.3% and growth at 1.4% [6] Group 2 - The market anticipates a total of 100 basis points in cuts over subsequent meetings, which is considered moderate for the current cycle [7] - Inflation remains a concern, which limits the aggressiveness of the Fed's actions despite the shift in focus towards the employment mandate [5][6]

Core Insights - Dow futures increased by 100 points, indicating a positive sentiment in the market as major indexes approach record highs [1] - Investor optimism is rising regarding easing inflation and the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the upcoming week [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a modest increase in producer prices, indicating limited signs of abnormal price increases due to tariffs, which may lead to a soft core PCE inflation expectation of 0.14% MoM in May [1][4][5] Core Viewpoints - Producer prices rose by 0.1% MoM in May, following a revised decline in April, suggesting that tariff impacts on prices may not yet be fully realized [1][4] - Core goods prices increased by 0.2% MoM, while core services prices remained flat, indicating a mixed inflationary environment [5][6] - The report anticipates that inflationary pressures are easing, which may provide confidence to Federal Reserve officials regarding future monetary policy adjustments [6][8] Summary by Sections - **PPI Overview**: Producer prices increased by 0.1% MoM in May, with core measures also reflecting a similar increase, although this was softer than expected [4][6] - **Inflation Expectations**: A 0.14% MoM increase in core PCE inflation is expected for May, with year-on-year core PCE potentially rising to 2.6% [5][7] - **Tariff Impact**: The report notes that significant tariffs, such as 50% on steel and aluminum, may affect input goods prices in the coming months, but current data shows limited immediate impact [8][9] - **Airfare Trends**: Airfares are expected to decline by around 1% in May, which is less than previously anticipated, indicating ongoing weakness in travel demand [7][9]