8 October 2025 | 4:29PM EDT Economics Research USA: "Most" FOMC Participants Said Further Easing Would Likely Be Appropriate This Year; Minutes Stress Soft Labor Market Indicators BOTTOM LINE: The minutes to the FOMC's September meeting noted that "most" participants judged it would likely be appropriate to "ease policy further over the remainder of the year." "Some" participants noted that easy financial conditions warranted "a cautious approach" going forward, and "a few" participants saw "merit in keepin ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **tariff policies** and their implications on the **US economy** and **global trade** dynamics, particularly focusing on the **steel, aluminum, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors**, and **drones** industries. Core Insights and Arguments - The **average effective tariff rate** is revised up to **19.5%** from **15.2%**, marking a **4.3 percentage points (pp)** increase due to escalated trade tensions under the Trump administration [4][7][28]. - New assumptions regarding **Section 232 tariffs** have been introduced, with **steel and aluminum tariffs** raised to **50%** and potential **50% tariffs on copper** products being considered [5][8]. - The **Department of Commerce** has initiated new investigations under **Section 232** for products including **polysilicon** and **drones**, indicating a broader scope for future tariffs [5][8]. - Despite aggressive tariff actions, factors such as favorable treatment of non-USMCA compliant imports from **Mexico** and **Canada**, and a significant decline in imports from **China**, have limited the rise in the average effective tariff rate [7][10][22]. Additional Important Points - The **realized tariff rate** was reported to be slightly below **10%** as of May, which is significantly lower than the announced tariff rates [7][14]. - The **share of imports from China** has sharply declined from **13.4%** in 2024 to **7.2%** in May 2025, with the effective tariff rate against China reaching **47.8%**, the highest among major US trading partners [22][24]. - The **reciprocal tariffs** against targeted countries are expected to average **20%**, up from the current **10%**, influenced by recent agreements with countries like **Indonesia** and **the Philippines** [8][9]. - Risks to the tariff expectations are two-sided; adjustments to exemptions for **Mexico** and **Canada** could lead to further increases, while potential postponements of tariff increases could pose downside risks [26][27]. Implications for Monetary Policy - The revised tariff assumptions pose **upside risks** to inflation and **downside risks** to economic growth forecasts, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's objectives regarding price stability and employment [28]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the evolving landscape of US tariff policies and their broader economic implications.