Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the impact of the federal government shutdown on the U.S. economy, particularly on labor market dynamics, economic activity, and inflation trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Government Shutdown Impact**: The federal government shutdown has delayed nearly all federal economic data releases for September and October, but it appears to be nearing an end with a legislative package expected to reopen the government by November 14 [2][5][6]. 2. **Labor Market Trends**: - Job growth slowed to 50,000 per month in October from 85,000 in September, indicating further softening in the labor market [2][9]. - The official nonfarm payrolls are expected to show a decline of 50,000 in October due to the impact of the government deferred resignation program [10][12]. - Layoffs have increased over the past few months, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [19][20]. 3. **GDP Growth Estimates**: - Q3 GDP tracking estimate revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 3.7%, and Q4 forecast increased by 0.3 percentage points to 1.3% due to a narrower trade deficit and stronger consumer spending [2][59]. - The GDP forecast for 2025 is now at 2% on a Q4/Q4 basis, up from 1.9% previously [59]. 4. **Consumer Spending**: - Consumer spending growth rebounded in October after a temporary pullback in September, with real personal consumption estimated to have grown at a 3% annualized pace in Q3 and projected at 1.4% in Q4 [24][25]. 5. **Business Investment**: - Equipment investment growth is expected to slow from 15% in 2025H1 to 2.3% in 2025H2 due to a deceleration in technology goods imports [33][35]. - Nonresidential structures investment is projected to rise from -5.3% in 2025H1 to 3.5% in 2025H2, reflecting a rebound in private sector construction projects [3][44]. 6. **Inflation Trends**: - Core CPI inflation is estimated to have held steady at 0.24% in October, with increases in used car prices and airfares contributing to this stability [64][65]. Additional Important Insights - The report highlights the resilience of parts of the economy outside the government sector despite the shutdown [23]. - The narrowing trade deficit is expected to contribute approximately 1 percentage point to GDP growth in 2025H2 [3][55]. - The housing market shows signs of stabilization, with residential investment growth projected to improve slightly from -3% in 2025H1 to -2% in 2025H2 [49][52]. - The report emphasizes the importance of alternative data sources in tracking economic indicators during periods of government data release delays [2][8]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and projections.

Core Insights - State Street Corporation has acquired PriceStats, a private-sector provider of daily inflation statistics, amid challenges facing government economic research [1][9] - The acquisition aims to enhance State Street's research capabilities and provide clients with more granular data on inflation and other economic variables [2][3] Company Strategy - State Street has been partnering with PriceStats since 2011, and the acquisition will allow for greater investment in the platform to improve data offerings [2][3] - The company intends to combine public data with PriceStats' analytics to provide clients with timely and accurate insights into the macroeconomic environment [10][11] Market Context - The acquisition occurs during a period of instability for government economic statistics, particularly due to actions taken by the Trump administration that have undermined trust in data [5][9] - The inability of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to conduct monthly inflation surveys due to a government shutdown raises concerns about the reliability of public data [6][8] Client Demand - There is an increasing demand from clients for data-driven insights to gain an investing edge, particularly in the context of rapidly changing economic conditions [4][5] - State Street aims to meet this demand by leveraging PriceStats' platform to help clients stay ahead of market trends [5][11]