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重庆啤酒_消费与休闲企业日_在趋势平淡背景下,非即饮渠道持续高端化
2025-06-09 01:42
Summary of Chongqing Brewery Corporate Day Company Overview - **Company**: Chongqing Brewery (600132.SS) - **Industry**: Consumer & Leisure Key Takeaways Recent Updates - The company reported a soft recovery in on-trade channels after a brief uptick in January-February due to Chinese New Year (CNY) celebrations - The channel mix for 1Q remained stable at 45:55 for on-trade/off-trade - Year-to-date (YTD) performance for Carlsberg/Tuborg brands aligns with 1Q results, while 1664/Red Wusu show strong performance in off-trade channels [2][3] Premiumization Strategy - Chongqing Brewery aims to outperform the industry in volume by 2025, focusing on premiumization in off-trade channels - The ratio of canned beer in 1Q grew by 2-3 percentage points year-over-year (yoy) to reach 29-30% - The company plans to accelerate the growth of premium canned products to enhance average selling price (ASP) and gross profit margin (GPM), particularly with continued double-digit percentage (DD%) growth in canned 1664 [2][3][7] Margin Outlook - The company expects cost benefits to persist in 2025 due to locked barley prices, although this will be partially offset by increased depreciation and amortization (D&A) from the Foshan factory - Efforts are being made to maintain a stable selling expense ratio in 2025, with more investments directed towards off-trade channels [2][3] Instant Delivery - Management views instant delivery services as advantageous for market expansion and new product launches - Partnerships with delivery platforms are typically initiated by headquarters and executed by local distributors [2][8] Beyond Beer Vision - The company is expanding into soft drinks, leveraging its beer distribution network and production capabilities - New products include the energy drink "Dianchi" and soda drink "Tianshan Fresh Fruit Village," with a focus on increasing presence in dining channels [2][9] Financial Projections - The 12-month price target is set at Rmb53.6, based on a 19.0x 2026E P/E ratio, reflecting a neutral rating - Revenue projections for 2025 are Rmb15,155.9 million, with EBITDA expected to reach Rmb3,930.1 million [10][13] Risks - Potential risks include slower or faster-than-expected growth of the Wusu brand, fluctuations in ASP, and variations in cost trends [10] Additional Insights - The company is actively exploring new product categories, including tea-flavored beer under the Dali brand - Management believes that the impacts of channel mix shifts and reduced consumption frequency are outweighed by the positive results from product and channel strategies [2][7] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Chongqing Brewery's current performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook.