Market Dynamics - Bitcoin has been rangebound for over ten weeks, influenced by long-term holders distributing and institutions accumulating, creating a deadlock [1][2][3] - Long-term holders (LTHs) started distributing Bitcoin when it broke above $110,000, but this distribution has decelerated recently [4][5] - Institutions, including ETF buyers and treasury companies, are aggressively buying Bitcoin, offsetting the supply from long-term holders [6] - Seasonality favors Bitcoin, with October and November historically being its two strongest months, averaging returns of +22.9% and +35.7% respectively [1][7] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve (Fed) has begun an easing cycle, cutting policy rates, which historically benefits Bitcoin as investors venture out on the risk curve [1][8] - Loosening credit conditions and a resilient economy are likely to drive another explosive leg higher for Bitcoin in Q4 [8][10] Technical Analysis - Long-term holder distribution is cooling, with net outflows from LTH supply slowing down [6] - Bitcoin's consolidation period suggests a potential for a violent breakout, with the odds favoring another leg higher in Q4 [10]

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