The seasonal returns chart highlights recurring trends in asset performance over specific months of the year, offering insights into potential price movements. Investors use seasonality to identify patterns and inform their decisions, but it's essential to remember that these patterns reflect past data and may not predict future performance. By analyzing the percentage of positive months and average gains or losses, traders can identify above-average tendencies. Caution is advised, however, as relying solel ...

Seasonality, precious metals, and positioning all collide as the calendar flips into the final stretch of the year...Today officially marks the start of the Santa Claus rally window, running from December 26 through year-end. Historically, the market has never missed three Santa rallies in a row, and after back-to-back disappointments, the odds tilt toward a positive finish this year.Setting Up for 2026As the year winds down, the focus naturally shifts from short-term seasonality to longer-term positioning. ...

🔥 INSIGHT: Analyst Timothy Peterson says Bitcoin’s current setup mirrors late 2022, with December weakness potentially giving way to a post-January 7 rally if seasonality repeats. https://t.co/f28YLIxVKh ...

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is experiencing a mixed trading environment as it approaches the end of 2025, with historical seasonal trends favoring bullish movements, yet technical resistance and market sentiment may limit upside potential [1][11][15] Market Performance - The SPX closed at 6,834.50 as of last Wednesday, showing signs of weakness following a recent rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [2] - The index has been fluctuating between 6,550 and 6,900 since mid-September, indicating a lack of decisive movement from either bulls or bears [4] - Recent trading has seen the SPX return above key moving averages and the 6,760 level, but it remains below the October closing high of 6,887 [3] Sector Analysis - The technology sector has been flat, contributing to the choppy market action, while gains in basic materials, financials, and consumer cyclicals have supported the SPX [7] - The market is characterized as a stock picker's environment, with specific sectors driving performance [7] Options Market Dynamics - Selling options premium on broad market indices or ETFs has been a successful strategy, with the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) near its 2025 lows [8][9] - The upcoming quarterly expiration for SPX options at the 7,000 strike could present a significant resistance point if the index breaks above 6,900 [10] Sentiment and Cash Holdings - Global asset managers' cash holdings have dropped to a record low of 3.3% in December, down from 3.7% in November, which may limit the potential for further equity purchases [12] - The sentiment among short-term traders appears to be turning sour, indicating a potential lack of momentum to drive stocks higher [13][14]

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Key Takeaways Steel Dynamics forecast Q4 EPS of $1.65-$1.69, above Q4 2024 but well below Q3 2025 levels.STLD cites lower realized steel prices, seasonal demand and mill outages curtailing 140k-150k tons.Steel Dynamics notes steady orders, backlog into Q2 2026, and $200M in Q4 buybacks. Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) has announced earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 in the range of $1.65 to $1.69 per share. This view implies an increase from $1.36 reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. Still, it  ...

There's less than two weeks left in 2025, but for small-caps, the new year is already here. Morningstar made light of the outperformance in small-caps, which historically manifests itself in an early year rally known as the "January Effect.†However, history has been rewriting itself as of late. Ambitious traders looking to position themselves ahead of the new year have been causing the January rally to arrive earlier than anticipated. "As with many Wall Street patterns, the timeline accelerated as traders ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently cautious as the SPX approaches potential resistance levels, with a 25-basis point rate cut already factored in by investors [1][3]. Market Performance - The SPX closed at 6,827.41, marking a historically weak seasonal period for the index, with the first half of December averaging a -0.07% return over the past 50 years [2]. - Notable winners in the market included silver, gold, industrials, and financials, while technology stocks, particularly Oracle and Broadcom, experienced declines due to poor earnings reactions [1]. Seasonal Trends - Historically, the second half of December is the strongest period for the SPX, averaging a 1.30% increase, with positive returns occurring about 75% of the time [4]. - If the SPX closes at 6,764.00 or higher, it is likely to see a continuation of this trend, with an average return of 1.86% into the end of the year [4]. Investor Sentiment - There is a significant short interest in SPX components, which could provide future buying power and support during pullbacks [10][13]. - Active investment managers are currently fully invested, which may limit their ability to provide support in the near term [10][16]. Resistance Levels - The SPX must break through established resistance around the 6,900 mark to trigger major short covering and facilitate a rally [14]. - The market has struggled to regain momentum since closing below the bottom rail of a bull channel in mid-November [6][16].

Market Outlook - US stocks are poised for continued growth through year-end and into early 2026 [1] - Bullish market positioning and favorable seasonality are expected to support the upward trend [1] Expert Opinion - Scott Rubner of Citadel suggests the extension of the US stocks' run [1]

Market Seasonality & Trends - Seasonality is considered unreliable for investment decisions, despite historical trends like "sell in May and go away" [1][2] - A rocky November preceded positive S&P 500 price targets for 2026 from banks, averaging 7580 [3] AI & Technology - Concerns exist about the consensus that AI will bring endless profitability, questioning if capital expenditure on AI is wise, given uncertain returns for end-users [6] - The current data center buildout for AI is reminiscent of the internet era's bandwidth buildout, suggesting a potential retrenchment [7] Investment Strategy & Market Breadth - The "easy money" in the market may have already been made, prompting a search for new investment opportunities [7][8] - The market is expected to broaden out beyond the same seven to ten popular stocks [9][10] - Investors are starting to look beyond hype, focusing on companies with solid earnings, dividends, and cash flows [11] Risk Assessment - Overexcitement and consensus can signal the end of bull markets [5] - Bitcoin is viewed as a short-term proxy for risk-on/risk-off sentiment, influencing algorithmic trading [11]