[music] It's already February and stocks just notched a positive January, which greatly increases the odds that 2026 will close in the green come December 31st. But not to get too ahead of ourselves, we're going to dig into what typically happens in February and beyond. I'm Jared Blickery, host of Stocks and Translation.First, we need to break down the concept of seasonality. What it is and what it isn't. Quite simply, it is the recurring calendar patterns that we see in market returns year after year or on ...

Equity investors love to talk about the "January effect." It is an idea that stocks, especially small caps, tend to rally at the start of the year as tax-loss selling fades and fresh capital returns. But what's less widely appreciated is that gold has its own January effect — and historically, it's been even more reliable.Statistically Significant OutperformanceWorld Gold Council research shows that since the early 1970s, gold has delivered average January returns of 1.79%. It is nearly three times its long ...

Core Insights - The Mexican Peso has appreciated significantly against the U.S. Dollar, gaining 22% in 2025 due to higher interest rates in Mexico and nearshoring trends [4] - Economic confidence in Mexico is bolstered by strong wage growth, a booming tourism sector, and stable economic conditions under President Sheinbaum [3] - The seasonal analysis indicates that January is the second-best month for the peso, with historical patterns showing strong correlations in peso futures [6][7] Foreign Investment - Continued nearshoring with the U.S. and Canada, along with overall Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Mexico, is expected to drive strong demand for pesos [2] Economic Confidence - The tourism sector has set new records for international visitors and revenue, contributing to the peso's strength [3] - Stable economic conditions under the current administration have further supported the peso's performance [3] Seasonal Trends - The Mexican Peso futures have shown high correlation with previous years, particularly in March, indicating potential for new investments [6] - The 15-year seasonal pattern for the peso begins trending up in early January, suggesting favorable trading conditions [8] Trading Opportunities - The USD/MXN spot forex pair is the most popular and liquid way to gain exposure to the Mexican Peso, with futures available on the CME for hedging or speculation [10] - The technical outlook remains positive, with the peso respecting a rising 50-day moving average and seasonal patterns indicating strength in January and March [11]

Group 1 - The Santa Claus rally window begins on December 26 and historically, the market has not missed three consecutive Santa rallies, suggesting a positive finish for this year after previous disappointments [1] - As the year ends, attention is shifting from short-term seasonality to long-term positioning, with emerging themes for 2026 including AI infrastructure, power, software durability, and macro normalization [2] - Silver is approaching all-time highs, indicating rising industrial demand particularly from sectors like solar, electrification, and manufacturing [3] Group 2 - The movement in precious metals, including silver, can reflect both industrial demand and hedging behavior or concerns regarding fiat stability, presenting a mixed signal for equities as 2026 approaches [4]

🔥 INSIGHT: Analyst Timothy Peterson says Bitcoin’s current setup mirrors late 2022, with December weakness potentially giving way to a post-January 7 rally if seasonality repeats. https://t.co/f28YLIxVKh ...

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is experiencing a mixed trading environment as it approaches the end of 2025, with historical seasonal trends favoring bullish movements, yet technical resistance and market sentiment may limit upside potential [1][11][15] Market Performance - The SPX closed at 6,834.50 as of last Wednesday, showing signs of weakness following a recent rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [2] - The index has been fluctuating between 6,550 and 6,900 since mid-September, indicating a lack of decisive movement from either bulls or bears [4] - Recent trading has seen the SPX return above key moving averages and the 6,760 level, but it remains below the October closing high of 6,887 [3] Sector Analysis - The technology sector has been flat, contributing to the choppy market action, while gains in basic materials, financials, and consumer cyclicals have supported the SPX [7] - The market is characterized as a stock picker's environment, with specific sectors driving performance [7] Options Market Dynamics - Selling options premium on broad market indices or ETFs has been a successful strategy, with the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) near its 2025 lows [8][9] - The upcoming quarterly expiration for SPX options at the 7,000 strike could present a significant resistance point if the index breaks above 6,900 [10] Sentiment and Cash Holdings - Global asset managers' cash holdings have dropped to a record low of 3.3% in December, down from 3.7% in November, which may limit the potential for further equity purchases [12] - The sentiment among short-term traders appears to be turning sour, indicating a potential lack of momentum to drive stocks higher [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting with competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in relation to investments in cryptocurrencies and CFDs [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and opinions, as well as materials from third parties for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information should not be interpreted as a recommendation or advice for any financial actions, including investments or purchases [1]. - The content is not tailored to individual financial situations or needs, highlighting the necessity for users to exercise their own discretion [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and CFDs, which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and fully understand the workings and risks of any financial instruments before investing [1]. - The website may feature advertisements and promotional content, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties related to such content [1].

Core Insights - Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) has provided earnings guidance for Q4 2025, estimating earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $1.65 to $1.69, which is an increase from $1.36 in Q4 2024 but a decline from $2.74 in Q3 2025 due to seasonal demand softness and operational challenges [1][5] Group 1: Earnings and Profitability - The anticipated lower profitability in steel operations is attributed to reduced average realized selling prices and lower shipment volumes, impacted by seasonal weakness and planned maintenance outages, resulting in a production curtailment of 140,000 to 150,000 tons [2][5] - Earnings from metals recycling and steel fabrication segments are also expected to decline sequentially due to reduced seasonal shipments [3] Group 2: Demand Outlook and Operational Developments - Despite the challenges, Steel Dynamics reported steady order activity and a robust backlog extending into Q2 2026, with expectations for improved volumes as interest rates may decline and infrastructure spending supports future demand [3] - The company is progressing with the commissioning of the aluminum flat rolled products mill and the San Luis Potosi satellite recycled slab center [4] Group 3: Stock Performance and Buybacks - Steel Dynamics repurchased approximately $200 million of its common stock during Q4 [4] - Shares of STLD have increased by 38.7% over the past six months, outperforming the industry average rise of 36% [4]

Core Insights - The "January Effect" is anticipated to manifest earlier this year due to traders positioning themselves ahead of the new year, leading to an early rally in small-cap stocks [1][2] - Historically, small-cap stocks have lagged behind large-cap stocks, particularly those associated with AI, but there is optimism for a potential turnaround in 2026 [2][3] Small-Cap Performance - Small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000 index, have not seen significant movement post-Thanksgiving, but a "Santa Claus rally" may still occur [2] - The Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares (TNA) is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity for bullish traders, offering three times the exposure to the Russell 2000 index [3] Seasonal Trends - The holiday season is generally favorable for all market caps, with a bullish trend expected to last through the first two trading days of the new year [4] - Leveraged funds such as the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF (SPXL) and the Direxion Daily Mid Cap Bull 3X Shares (MIDU) are also recommended for traders during this season [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently cautious as the SPX approaches potential resistance levels, with a 25-basis point rate cut already factored in by investors [1][3]. Market Performance - The SPX closed at 6,827.41, marking a historically weak seasonal period for the index, with the first half of December averaging a -0.07% return over the past 50 years [2]. - Notable winners in the market included silver, gold, industrials, and financials, while technology stocks, particularly Oracle and Broadcom, experienced declines due to poor earnings reactions [1]. Seasonal Trends - Historically, the second half of December is the strongest period for the SPX, averaging a 1.30% increase, with positive returns occurring about 75% of the time [4]. - If the SPX closes at 6,764.00 or higher, it is likely to see a continuation of this trend, with an average return of 1.86% into the end of the year [4]. Investor Sentiment - There is a significant short interest in SPX components, which could provide future buying power and support during pullbacks [10][13]. - Active investment managers are currently fully invested, which may limit their ability to provide support in the near term [10][16]. Resistance Levels - The SPX must break through established resistance around the 6,900 mark to trigger major short covering and facilitate a rally [14]. - The market has struggled to regain momentum since closing below the bottom rail of a bull channel in mid-November [6][16].