Seasonality is on our side now.Bullish for Bitcoin & Crypto! https://t.co/VAJOXX06wF ...

Economic and Market Overview - Political turmoil in France is impacting international markets, creating a divergence between southern and northern Europe, with the latter facing less difficulty compared to the US [1][2] - The US market is experiencing an "everything rally," contrasting with the challenges in Europe, attributed to a lack of productivity and fragmented markets [1][2] AI and Market Sentiment - There are mixed views on the US market, with some investors believing AI will drive a prolonged bull market, while others fear potential economic turmoil due to market overvaluation [3][4] - AI is seen as an unavoidable theme in the market, but there are concerns about the concentration of market cap among a few stocks, which could indicate fragility [5] Investment Trends - The rise in quantum computing stocks is viewed as speculative, while gold and Bitcoin are reaching all-time highs as safe havens, indicating a split in investor strategies [6][7] - Retail investors are diversifying their portfolios, showing increased interest in gold and silver ETFs, alongside traditional investments [7] Seasonal Market Behavior - October is historically viewed as a volatile month, with notable market crashes, yet data shows that the S&P and Dow Jones have positive average returns in October since 1950 [9][10] - The upcoming earnings season and share buyback pauses may contribute to volatility, making October a transitional month for the market [10]

Group 1 - The ISM services number came in weaker than expected at 50, indicating potential inflationary pressures in the service sector, which constitutes 60% of the CPI index [1][2] - Prices paid by service sector companies increased, suggesting that inflation in services may be more persistent than previously thought [1][2] - Employment index in the ISM report showed a slight improvement at 47.2%, indicating challenges in assessing the true state of the economy without government data [1][2] Group 2 - In the absence of government data, alternative indicators such as Red Book same-store retail sales and OpenTable restaurant data are crucial for assessing consumer health [1][2] - The consensus forecast for inflation is at 3% for the next 12 months, higher than the Fed's target of 2%, raising concerns about inflation risks if the economy does not slow down [2] - The Fed may need to consider rate hikes if inflation remains sticky and does not decrease as expected [2] Group 3 - Consumer spending has been resilient, but persistent inflation could lead to reduced real spending as prices rise [2] - Higher inflation for an extended period may result in higher interest rates, impacting borrowing costs and increasing delinquency rates on consumer credit [2] - The AI sector is becoming increasingly concentrated, with the top companies driving significant market performance, raising concerns about potential overvaluation [5][6] Group 4 - Historical data suggests that government shutdowns have minimal impact on market performance, with markets often rising during shutdown periods [21][22] - The upcoming earnings season is critical, with expectations for a 7% year-on-year gain in Q3 for the S&P 500, particularly strong in technology [29][30] - Valuations are elevated, with the S&P 500 trading at a 42% premium compared to a 20-year history, indicating potential risks for future returns [33][34]

Seasonality is important.Q4 is almost always the best quarter of the entire year.I’m very bullish here. https://t.co/AKLUskh09b ...

So Vance, let's get to your word of the day. Your word of the day today is productive. And I was trying to figure out what could this be alluding to because we got a government shutdown going on.Uh we're still a couple days away from earning season. What what productivity are you seeing. >> Uh we got to stay positive, Frank.Man, don't think about all these negative things. And by the way, government shutdowns never work. They're just a they're just they're a comical joke anymore.We've been having government ...

PresentationRaj Junginger Okay, all right. Thank you all for joining our pre-close call for the third quarter '25. As always, in these calls, we'd like to remind you that the following trends and statements are based on our current view on the third quarter and that some of the developments we will describe here are still subject to change. Especially in Q3, September is a very decisive month after the summer months of July and August, and we don't have the actuals yet for last month. So let's start off wit ...

[Music] That is the closing bell on Wall Street and now it's market domination over time giving you full coverage all the moves to get you up to speed on the action from today's trade. Yahoo Finance's very own Jared Blickery joining us now to break it all down. Jared, what do you see at that close.>> Well, thank you Josh. Uh the Dow is not up by a lot, just over 40 points or onetenth of a percent, but that is enough for a record closing high. And I'll show you the intraday price action.Here you go off of th ...

Market Overview - US stocks are experiencing a modest selloff, with the Dow down approximately 76 points, the S&P 500 off about a third of a percent, and the Nasdaq Composite down nearly half a percent [3][4] - Defensive sectors such as healthcare and utilities are limiting losses, while cyclical sectors like communication services, financials, and industrials are underperforming [5][6] Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown could reduce GDP by 0.1% to 0.2% for each week it continues, with the last shutdown resulting in a $3 billion loss in real GDP for Q4 2018 and Q1 2019 [7][8] - The current shutdown is different from the previous one as it is a full shutdown, raising concerns about its duration and potential economic impact [10][12] Employment and Economic Data - The ADP jobs report indicated a drop of 32,000 jobs, leading to a market reaction that saw yields decline and increased expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [28][29] - The Fed is closely monitoring labor market data, with indications that a significant demand shortfall may prompt rate cuts to prevent rising unemployment [34][36] Union Pacific and Ford Insights - Union Pacific is in the process of a significant $85 billion merger with Norfolk Southern, which aims to create the first transcontinental railroad in the US [55][56] - Ford's CEO highlighted a worker shortage in critical industries, emphasizing the need for skilled trades and the impact of tariffs on operational costs, estimating a $2 billion net tariff impact this year [80][82] Emerging Markets and International Opportunities - Emerging markets, particularly in technology, are gaining investor interest, with a notable rise in the EMQQ ETF, which tracks emerging market internet companies [87][89] - Latin America is highlighted as a significant growth area, with companies like Mercado Libre leading the charge in e-commerce and financial services [93][94]

Bitcoin closed September with a 5.16% gain, its third-best September on record since 2013, according to Coinglass data. The performance comes as traders turn their attention to October, which has historically been the asset’s strongest month. Since 2013, bitcoin has averaged 14.4% gains in October, with a median return of 10.8%. Out of 13 Octobers in that span, 10 ended in the green and only three closed lower. That track record makes October the most statistically favorable month for the asset, with gai ...

U.S. stock futures tumbled on Wednesday following Tuesday’s advances. Futures of major benchmark indices were lower.The indices dropped as the U.S. federal government officially entered a shutdown at 12:01 a.m. on Wednesday, Oct. 1, after Congress failed to reach an agreement on a spending plan. However, historical data suggests that these events are often short-lived and have a limited long-term impact on equities. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.15% and the two-year bond was at 3.60%. The C ...