Market Overview - Bitcoin has declined by 25% over the past six months, currently trading below $88,000, attributed to macroeconomic uncertainties and diminishing institutional flows [2][5] - The peak price near $126,000 in late 2025 was followed by decreasing enthusiasm and leveraged trading, leading to forced liquidations [2][5] Price Projections - CryptoQuant anticipates a medium-term downside target of around $70,000, with a significant pullback potentially reaching $56,000, which is historically where bear markets have settled [5] - More severe scenarios suggest prices could drop to $25,000 or even $10,000 under catastrophic conditions [5] Institutional Behavior - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows of $4.57 billion in November and December 2025, marking their worst two-month performance on record [9] - The trend of institutional exits is accelerating, with significant outflows indicating structural de-risking rather than temporary profit-taking [9] Technical Indicators - Bitcoin is trading below its 365-day moving average of approximately $101,000, with bearish signals emerging on the weekly chart [9] - Current price range is between $85,000 and $92,000, with selling pressure evident at each rally attempt [9] Historical Context - Historical patterns show that sharp corrections of 40-50% typically recover within 6-16 months, while deeper bear markets with 70-80% declines take 24-28 months to recover [7] - Previous significant drawdowns include a 78% drop from about $69,000 to below $16,000, which required 28 months for recovery [10] Recovery Outlook - Recovery hinges on macroeconomic catalysts, with a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve potentially stabilizing conditions by Q2-Q3 2026 [12] - Conservative estimates suggest Bitcoin could reach $120,000-$170,000 by the end of 2026 if ETF flows stabilize and macroeconomic conditions improve [15] Supply-Demand Dynamics - Long-term holders have resumed accumulation after a distribution phase, indicating a favorable supply-demand dynamic [15] - Despite market turbulence, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $20 billion in total flows during 2025, laying the groundwork for renewed accumulation [15]

4️⃣ Why it matters:🔹 Institutional flows from ETFs and funds are absorbing sell-pressure🔹 Supply held by long-term holders remains near record highs🔹 Miner capitulation hasn’t appearedOf course, market cycles evolve. Maybe this time, the rhythm stretches. Maybe we’re still mid-cycle. ...

Market Focus - Fundamentals are expected to drive significant institutional investment flows into the crypto market [1] - The industry should prioritize promoting crypto tokens with tangible cash flows, verifiable financials, and sustainable business models [1] - A focus on fundamentals benefits both value-oriented ('left curve') and growth-oriented ('right curve') investors [1] Investment Strategy - For value investors, the focus is on metrics like buybacks [1] - For growth investors, key metrics include annual revenue, P/E ratios, and DCF ratios [1] Industry Outlook - A return to fundamentals is considered a positive development for the crypto industry [1]

Institutional Investment - Institutional flows dominated Q3, driven by spot BTC and ETH ETFs attracting over $18 billion in inflows [1] - Public firms increased their BTC holdings by 190,000, representing 5% of the total supply [1] Altcoin Treasuries - Altcoin treasuries are increasing, with ETH, SOL, TRX, WLD, and ATH leading the way [1]

trying to subsidize shitcoins via short-term shills, paid spots, and supply control is one thingand it does work short termbuilding the foundations for trading all markets on the internet through ruthless focus on product, performance, and founders is anotherthese are not the same gamesthe former is similar to the days where certain NFT projects would leave the chain for a grant, I'm sure you remember what came afterthe latter is much more interesting and full of worthy competitors like hyperliquidwhat come ...

It's Q4 of the fourth year in crypto's 4-year cycle, and it's crypto's fourth cycle since Bitcoin launched in 2009. And this means it's going to be up only until the end of the year. Right. Right. Right.Well, not necessarily. Even though the end of the year has historically been bullish for the crypto market, it's not going to be plain sailing. In fact, history suggests that volatility is likely to increase as we approach crypto's cycle top.And that's why today we're going to tell you everything you need to ...

Key Events to Track - Track the impact of the 32nd auto-burn on July 10 [1] Meme Coin Market - Track meme coin volatility, highlighting high rewards and risks in low-float projects [1] Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs) - Monitor institutional flows into tokenized RWAs, specifically via Ondo Finance [1]