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Is Columbia Banking Stock a Buy for 2026 on Rising Revenues?
ZACKS· 2025-12-17 14:21
Core Insights - Columbia Banking (COLB) aims to reaccelerate revenues and reshape its balance sheet following the acquisition of Pacific Premier, with a focus on building sustainable top-line drivers through margin actions and fee income platforms into 2026 [1] Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, Columbia Banking's total revenue increased by 17% year-over-year to $582 million, with both net interest income (NII) and non-interest income rising by 17% [2] - The integration of Pacific Premier contributed to early benefits, and net interest margin (NIM) expanded due to growth in customer deposits and reduced reliance on higher-cost brokered deposits and term debt [2] Margin and Income Expectations - Management anticipates a NIM of approximately 3.90% in Q4 2025, supported by around $12 million in deposit premium amortization, with a similar margin expected in Q1 2026 despite a slight decrease in average earning assets [3] - Excluding one-time items, NII is projected to remain stable in early 2026 [3] Fee Income Growth - Year-to-date in 2025, treasury management and commercial card fees have increased compared to the previous year, with notable growth in financial services, trust, and international banking revenues, which now constitute a significant portion of COLB's non-interest income [4] - The acquisition of Pacific Premier has introduced additional fee income sources, including Custodial Trust Services and homeowners association banking, leading to over 1,200 cross-sell referrals and significant deposit inflows [5] Sales Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate forecasts a substantial increase in sales from $2.28 billion in 2025 to $2.76 billion in 2026, driven by the integration of Pacific Premier and a strategic shift towards relationship-driven commercial and industrial banking linked to deposits and fees [6] - Production and pipelines improved in Q3 2025, enhancing the revenue mix as cost synergies are expected to materialize through 2026 [6] Earnings Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COLB's earnings is projected at $2.91 for 2025 and $3.07 for 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth of 7.4% for 2025 and 5.6% for 2026 [11] Competitive Positioning - Columbia Banking's peers, East West Bancorp (EWBC) and Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL), are expected to see sales growth of 11.7% and 4.5% for 2025 and 9.3% and 9.2% for 2026, respectively [13][14]