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Trump's 10% Interest Rate Cap On Credit Cards Will 'Likely Bring On A Recession,' Says Capital One CEO: $6 Trillion Consumer Spending At Stake - Capital One Finl (NYSE:COF), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM)
Benzinga· 2026-01-23 07:19
Core Viewpoint - Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank warns that President Trump's proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates could severely limit consumer access to credit and destabilize the economy [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Fairbank argues that implementing a price control on credit will not make it more affordable but will reduce its availability across the credit spectrum [2]. - He emphasizes that consumer credit is crucial to the U.S. economy, with 70% of GDP driven by consumer spending, and $6 trillion of that spending occurring on credit cards [2]. - A significant reduction in available credit could lead to economic shocks and potentially trigger a recession due to decreased consumer spending [2]. Group 2: Company Vulnerability - Analysts indicate that Capital One is particularly vulnerable to interest rate caps due to its reliance on revolving credit card balances and net interest income [3]. - The company reported $279.6 billion in credit card loans, which is the largest portion of its total loan portfolio of $453.6 billion [3]. Group 3: Industry Reactions - Other industry experts, including JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, have echoed Fairbank's concerns, stating that the proposal could remove credit access for 80% of Americans and lead to economic disaster [4]. - John Garner, CEO of Odynn, notes that consumers with less-than-perfect credit would be the first to feel the negative effects of the proposed cap, suggesting it would not create a level playing field but rather shrink access to credit [5]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Capital One reported fourth-quarter revenue of $15.58 billion, a 52.92% increase year-over-year, surpassing consensus estimates of $15.48 billion [5]. - However, the company missed earnings expectations with a reported $3.86 per share, below the consensus estimate of $4.11 per share [6]. - Following the earnings miss, Capital One's stock fell 3.31% in after-hours trading, despite a 1.76% increase during regular trading hours [7].