Core Viewpoint - The Global X SuperDividend ETF (SDIV) offers a high dividend yield of 9.7%, significantly higher than other ETFs, but faces sustainability issues due to its reliance on mortgage REITs and high payout ratios [3][4][5]. Group 1: Dividend Yield Comparison - SDIV's yield of 9.7% is more than triple the 2.5% yield from the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) and over double the 3.7% yield from the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) [3]. - The fund tracks 100 of the highest-yielding equities globally, with a focus on mortgage REITs, Brazilian companies, and emerging markets [3]. Group 2: Fund Structure and Performance - SDIV has a 0.58% expense ratio, which is nearly ten times higher than that of VYM and SCHD, indicating higher costs associated with managing the fund [4]. - The fund's portfolio turnover rate is 93%, suggesting frequent trading that may negatively impact returns [4]. Group 3: Dividend Sustainability Concerns - The monthly dividend has decreased from $0.255 in early 2023 to $0.19, marking a 25% reduction, which highlights structural challenges within the fund [4]. - Key holdings in SDIV, particularly mortgage REITs, exhibit unsustainable payout ratios, such as Annaly Capital Management with a 122% payout ratio and AGNC Investment with a 215% payout ratio [5][6]. - The reliance on high leverage and sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations makes mortgage REITs vulnerable, as their book values can decline rapidly [6]. Group 4: Comparison with Other Investment Options - The high yield of SDIV is primarily driven by mortgage REITs with payout ratios exceeding 200%, which raises concerns about the sustainability of these dividends [7]. - In contrast, the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) offers a more sustainable yield of 8.2% through covered calls on quality U.S. stocks, with payout ratios like Broadcom's at 61% [7].

Leading economist Mohamed El-Erian is calling for sweeping reforms at the Federal Reserve, warning that the central bank’s credibility is at risk following a prolonged period of policy missteps and internal dysfunction in recent years.Fed Admits To Making MistakesEl-Erian, the Chief Economist at Allianz, said that the current focus when it comes to the Fed is on the short-term, such as whether to cut rates in December, or who will be the next Fed Chair, which he said misses the broader point, while appearin ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company reported net income of $0.53 per share compared to a loss of $0.29 in Q2 2025 [5] - Book value increased to $7.33 as of September 30 from $7.21 on June 30 [5] - Total return for Q3 was 6.7%, a significant improvement from negative 4.7% in Q2 [5] - Average portfolio balance rose to $7.7 billion in Q3 from $6.9 billion in Q2 [5] - Liquidity improved to 57.1% at September 30, up from 54% at June 30 [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average coupon of the portfolio increased from 5.45% to 5.53% [30] - Effective yield rose from 5.38% to 5.51% [30] - Net interest spread expanded from 2.43% to 2.59% [30] - 20% of the portfolio is now backed by credit-impaired borrowers, with significant exposure to Florida and New York pools [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Treasury curve steepened slightly during the quarter, reflecting market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts due to labor market deterioration [7][9] - The current coupon mortgage spread to the 10-year Treasury halved from 200 basis points in May 2023 to 100 basis points [11] - The mortgage market remains attractive, with strong demand despite tight credit spreads [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a conservative leverage posture while focusing on high coupon specified pools to enhance income stability [30][43] - The strategy includes a heavy tilt towards call-protected specified pools to insulate against adverse payment behavior [30] - The company is positioned to benefit from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and the anticipated end of quantitative tightening [44] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a potential crossroads for the economy, with labor market weakness prompting possible Federal Reserve rate cuts, while also observing resilience in consumer spending and government stimulus [45][46] - The company expects to adjust hedges to lock in lower funding costs and prepare for potential rate hikes following expected cuts [47] Other Important Information - The company raised $152 million in equity capital during the quarter, which was fully deployed into high-quality specified pools [28][41] - The weighted average price of the portfolio was over $101, indicating a premium position [72] Q&A Session Summary Question: Any macro factors that might change overall risk positioning? - Management indicated that if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, they might consider increasing leverage to benefit from the low-rate environment [50][52] Question: View on payouts upside potential with refi momentum? - Management noted that payouts have increased sharply recently, but they do not expect to return to the high levels seen in 2020 or 2021 [54][55] Question: Scenarios for dollar roll specialness returning? - Management expressed skepticism about the return of dollar roll specialness, citing the Federal Reserve's focus on buying Treasuries and bills rather than mortgages [61] Question: Supply and availability for longer-dated repo? - Management mentioned that spreads for longer-dated repo are currently too wide, but they are opportunistically looking to lock in favorable terms [63][64] Question: Percentage of portfolio covered with call protection? - Almost 100% of the portfolio has some form of call protection, which is expected to mitigate risks in a declining rate environment [71]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 has reached its 23rd record high this year, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment as concerns that previously suppressed valuations are fading [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin easing monetary policy, with GDP growth projected to increase from 1% this year to 2% next year, suggesting a pro-cyclical environment [2] - Interest rate volatility is at its lowest since 2022, creating an ideal environment for asset allocators to take on more risk in their portfolios [4] Group 2 - The probability of a recession over the next 12 months is estimated to be between 20% and 25%, supporting expectations of double-digit earnings growth next year [5] - Consumer spending, which constitutes 70% of the US economy, is expected to receive a boost from recent fiscal policies and lower federal funds rates [5] - The labor market is described as stagnant, with job creation decreasing from an average of over 200,000 jobs per month last year to about 75,000 this year, indicating potential challenges for the Federal Reserve [8][10] Group 3 - The 10-year Treasury note is highlighted as a significant factor for consumers, especially with $7 trillion in money market funds facing reinvestment risks [7] - Initial jobless claims have remained relatively stable, averaging 227,000 this year, which presents a complex situation for the Federal Reserve [9][10] - The outlook for both equities and credit remains positive, with expectations of double-digit earnings growth and 2% GDP growth next year [11]

try to put together, Phil, uh what 23rd record high for the S&P this year. What are are you thinking about valuations more or is it more about the the potential that names like Oracle are handing us. Yeah, and I think a lot of it has to do, Carl, with the fact that a lot of the things that people were worried about this year that may have kept valuations lower are kind of fading away a little bit here.So, last December 18th, we were here, Federal Reserve told us that they would cut rates twice in 2025. Nine ...

Core Insights - Bimini Capital Management reported modest net income of approximately $43 thousand for Q2 2025, despite challenges in the mortgage REIT sector due to market turmoil from tariffs [2][3][9] - The advisory services segment showed strong performance with a 20% increase in revenues for Q2 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [3][5] - The company anticipates growth in its RMBS portfolio as market conditions improve and cash positions increase [3][4] Financial Performance - For the six months ended June 30, 2025, Bimini recorded net income of $0.6 million, or $0.06 per share, with a return on stockholders' equity of 8.7% [2][9] - Advisory service revenues for Q2 2025 were approximately $3.8 million, reflecting a 20% increase over Q2 2024 [5][28] - Interest revenues increased by 23% for Q2 2025 compared to Q2 2024, despite a loss of $1.3 million in the MBS segment [3][6] Market Conditions - The mortgage REIT sector faced losses in Q2 2025, but market conditions are expected to improve with lower interest rate volatility and favorable trading levels for Agency RMBS [2][4] - The Federal Reserve is likely to reduce overnight rates if economic conditions deteriorate, which could support the sector [4] Portfolio and Capital Allocation - As of June 30, 2025, the total market value of Bimini's MBS portfolio was approximately $107.6 million, down from $122.3 million at the end of 2024 [18][25] - The company received approximately $3.3 million in principal repayments and prepayments during Q2 2025, resulting in a constant prepayment rate of approximately 9.9% [17] - The effective duration of the MBS portfolio was 2.931, indicating sensitivity to interest rate changes [19] Financing and Liquidity - Bimini had outstanding repurchase obligations of approximately $101.7 million as of June 30, 2025, with a net weighted average borrowing rate of 4.49% [20][22] - The company's liquidity was approximately $5.7 million, consisting of unpledged MBS and cash equivalents [20] Upcoming Events - An earnings conference call is scheduled for August 1, 2025, at 10:00 AM ET to discuss the results [32]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The economic return for the quarter was negative 4.8%, consisting of a $0.34 dividend per common share and a $0.76 decline in book value per common share [7] - The debt to equity ratio decreased from 7.1x at the end of March to 6.5x at the end of June, indicating a more defensive posture due to elevated near-term uncertainty [7] - As of July 18, 2025, the estimated book value per common share is between $7.99 and $8.31, reflecting a slight recovery in performance [8][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Agency RMBS portfolio decreased by 15% quarter over quarter as the company managed risk amid trade policy uncertainty [18] - The allocation to Agency CMBS increased from 15% at the end of Q1 to just over 17% as of June 30, 2025, due to the decline in the Agency RMBS portfolio [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Interest rates declined across the front end of the Treasury yield curve during Q2, while long-term rates increased, reflecting expectations for accommodative policy from the FOMC [6][11] - The two-year Treasury yield declined by 16 basis points, while the thirty-year yield increased by 20 basis points, leading to the steepest two-thirty spread in nearly 3.5 years [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a cautious near-term outlook but is optimistic about the long-term demand for Agency mortgages due to attractive valuations and stabilization in interest rate volatility [8][25] - The focus remains on specified pools with predictable prepayment behavior, particularly in lower loan balance collateral [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that financial conditions were volatile in Q2 but ended modestly accommodative, with expectations for two rate cuts by year-end and additional cuts in 2026 [5][25] - The company believes that further easing of monetary policy will lead to a steeper yield curve and a decline in interest rate volatility, supporting long-term demand for agency mortgages [25] Other Important Information - The company’s liquidity position is strong, providing a cushion for potential market stress while allowing for capital deployment as the investment environment improves [25] - The financing market for Agency CMBS remains robust, with no concerns about deterioration during a widening event [62] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the company view the relative risk versus reward for high coupon RMBS? - The company believes that spreads reflect the risk accurately and has reduced exposure to higher coupon RMBS due to their sensitivity to interest rate volatility [29][30] Question: What is the company's comfort level on leverage? - The company is comfortable with its current leverage, which is lower than in Q1, and does not feel the need to increase leverage to meet return goals [33][34] Question: What is the outlook for swap spreads and the mix of hedges? - The company anticipates that swap spreads will widen, which would be beneficial, and is currently at maximum allocation to interest rate swaps [37][38] Question: What are the views on core earnings and dividends? - The company expects ROEs to remain attractive, supporting the current dividend without significant changes in the near term [41][45] Question: How does the company feel about CMBS spreads when the Fed cuts rates? - The company is comfortable with the financing market for Agency CMBS and expects spreads to tighten as the Fed cuts rates [60][62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported distributable earnings of $57.3 million or $0.28 per share, and $0.31 per share excluding one-time realized losses from the sale of two REO assets [19][12] - The return on equity (ROE) for the first quarter was approximately 10% [19] - The company anticipates distributable earnings guidance of $0.30 to $0.35 per quarter for 2025 [19][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The balance sheet lending platform originated $370 million in new bridge loans during the first quarter, with a target of $1.5 billion to $2 billion for 2025 [13][14] - The agency business had a slow first quarter, producing $6 million in originations and $731 million in loan sales, maintaining strong margins of 1.75% [25] - The investment portfolio grew to $11.5 billion at March 31, with an all-in yield of 7.85% [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a significant backup in long-term rates, creating headwinds for originations [7][8] - The delinquency rate decreased by 20% to $654 million as of March 31, compared to $819 million at December 31 [22] - The average cost of debt decreased to approximately 6.82% at March 31 from 6.88% at December 31 [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on resolving REO assets and delinquencies, viewing 2025 as a transitional year [18][12] - The strategy includes leveraging efficiencies in the securitization market and maintaining strong banking relationships to drive future earnings [5][7] - The company aims to reposition underperforming assets to increase occupancy and net operating income (NOI) over the next 12 to 24 months [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current economic environment is characterized by volatility and uncertainty, particularly regarding interest rates [8][9] - There is optimism about potential rate reductions, which could positively impact agency volumes and earnings [9][12] - The management believes that the company is well-positioned to grow earnings and dividends again in 2026 if current challenges are addressed [12][18] Other Important Information - The company has successfully modified $38 million of loans and brought $39 million of loans back to performing status [10] - The company expects REO assets to increase to between $400 million and $500 million, with plans to aggressively manage and reposition these assets [52][54] - The book value at the end of the quarter was reported at $11.98 [77] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for the Bridge portfolio growth in 2025? - Management expects net growth in the Bridge portfolio, targeting $1.5 billion to $2 billion in new business, with runoff projected between $1.5 billion to $3 billion depending on interest rates [32][33] Question: What were the primary weaknesses in the 2022 and 2023 vintages? - Management indicated that the multifamily sector experienced a long period of growth without corrections, leading to poor performance due to rising rates, economic vacancy issues, and increased competition from inexperienced entrants [39][41] Question: What is the current liquidity situation and expectations for NPLs and REO? - The company has $325 million in cash and liquidity, with expectations for REO to rise to between $400 million and $500 million, while NPLs are projected to decrease as assets are repositioned [48][54] Question: How much of the reported income was non-cash? - The company reported $15.3 million of PIK (payment-in-kind) interest during the quarter, which is a moving number based on loan modifications and performance [66] Question: What is the company's stance on stock buybacks? - Management emphasized the importance of liquidity and will evaluate stock buybacks based on market conditions and opportunities for capital growth [78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported distributable earnings of $57.3 million or $0.28 per share, and $0.31 per share excluding one-time realized losses from the sale of two REO assets [19] - The return on equity (ROE) for the first quarter was approximately 10% [19] - The company anticipates a quarterly distributable earnings guidance of $0.30 to $0.35 for 2025 [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The balance sheet lending platform originated $370 million in new bridge loans during the first quarter, with a full-year guidance of $1.5 billion to $2 billion [12][13] - The agency business had a slow first quarter, producing $6 million in originations and $731 million in loan sales, maintaining strong margins of 1.75% [25] - The investment portfolio grew to $11.5 billion at March 31, with an all-in yield of 7.85% [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a reduction in delinquencies, down 20% to $654 million at March 31 compared to $819 million at December 31 [22] - The average yield on core investments decreased to 8.15% from 8.52% due to a reduction in the average SOFR rate [26] - The overall net interest spread in core assets decreased to 1.26% from 1.44% [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on resolving REO assets and delinquencies, viewing 2025 as a transitional year to set up for growth in 2026 [18] - The company plans to leverage efficiencies in the securitization market to drive higher returns on capital [6][18] - The strategy includes repositioning underperforming assets to improve occupancy and net operating income (NOI) [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted significant uncertainty and volatility in the interest rate environment, impacting the ability to predict future performance [8] - The company expects continued challenges in the short term due to the drag on earnings from REO assets and delinquencies [12] - If interest rates decrease, it could positively impact the company's ability to convert non-interest earning assets into income-producing investments [11] Other Important Information - The company has successfully modified $38 million of loans and brought $39 million of loans back to full performance [10] - The company took back $197 million of REO assets in the first quarter, with expectations to increase REO assets to between $400 million and $500 million [52] - The company has managed to deleverage its business by 30%, reducing the leverage ratio to 2.8:1 [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for the Bridge Loan Portfolio - Management expects net growth in the bridge loan portfolio in 2025, targeting $1.5 billion to $2 billion in new business [32][34] Question: Reasons for Poor Performance in Previous Vintages - Management attributed poor performance to a combination of market corrections, economic factors, and inexperienced management in the multifamily sector [40][42] Question: Liquidity and NPLs Expectations - The company currently has $325 million in cash and liquidity, with expectations for NPLs to decrease as they work through the REO assets [48][54] Question: Non-Cash Income and Interest - The company reported $15.3 million of non-cash interest during the quarter, which is a moving number based on loan modifications [65][66] Question: Interest Rate Environment - Management discussed the impact of interest rates on business performance, noting that lower rates could enhance earnings potential [72][74]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1, the company earned $0.18 per share compared to $0.07 in Q4, with a book value of $7.94 per share down from $8.09 at the end of Q4 [5][6] - Total return for the quarter was 2.6% unannualized, an increase from 0.6% in Q4 [5] - The average portfolio size was just under $6 billion, up from $5.3 billion in Q4, with a leverage ratio of 7.8 compared to 7.3 at the end of Q4 [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average portfolio size increased, indicating a more substantial investment in mortgage-backed securities [6] - Prepayment speeds decreased to 7.8% in Q1 from 10.5% in Q4, reflecting changes in market conditions [6][52] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market experienced significant volatility due to tariffs and their expected impact on the economy and inflation, leading to pricing in multiple Fed cuts by year-end [11][60] - Swap spreads moved meaningfully negative late in the quarter, impacting mortgage performance [14][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company raised capital during the quarter, deploying it into higher coupon, shorter duration assets, and hedging with longer duration instruments [24][32] - The strategy focuses on maintaining a balance between risk and return, particularly in a volatile market environment [61] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed uncertainty regarding future economic conditions, highlighting potential inflationary pressures and slower growth due to tariffs [56][60] - The company is positioned to benefit from a steeper yield curve, which is anticipated to occur as a result of the current economic landscape [61] Other Important Information - The company declared and paid dividends of $0.36 per share for the quarter, maintaining a consistent payout [5] - Liquidity at the end of Q1 was 52.2%, slightly down from 52.9% at the end of Q4 [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the duration gap at the end of the quarter and to date? - Management indicated that the duration gap is narrow, with a DV01 basis of $13, remaining consistent [64][65] Question: What is the current book value? - The estimated book value was $7.28, reflecting an 8.3% decline quarter to date [70][71] Question: Where do you see gross ROE sitting today? - Management suggested that ROE is very high, potentially around 20%, due to volatile market conditions [79] Question: How are you looking at dividend issuance and buybacks? - Management noted that buybacks were reactivated due to stock price declines, and future capital raising may be considered for liquidity purposes [81][82] Question: How does the Rocket Mortgage and Nationstar merger affect prepay speeds? - Management indicated that the merger could lead to faster prepayment speeds, impacting the convexity of the mortgage universe [104]