Group 1 - Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Anna Paulson indicated that interest rates may decrease later this year if inflation continues to decline and the labor market stabilizes [2] - Economic growth remains solid, suggesting a potential for interest rate cuts without jeopardizing economic stability [2] - The comments reflect a cautious optimism regarding the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [2]

Gold rose to another record, extending gains on heightened geopolitical tensions and bets on more US interest-rate cuts https://t.co/DM68d7ZURm ...

Group 1 - Treasury yields are rising, reversing last week's declines, influenced by an increase in Japanese government bond yields following the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike [1] - Traders are anticipating the delayed first-estimate U.S. third-quarter GDP data, which is set to be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on Tuesday [1] - Any weakness in the GDP data could enhance the prospects for U.S. interest rate cuts, potentially leading to lower Treasury yields, especially after recent inflation figures fell below forecasts [1] Group 2 - The Conference Board's December consumer confidence index will be released at 10 a.m. Eastern time and is expected to be closely monitored [2] - Trading activity may slow down following the consumer confidence index release due to the holiday-shortened trading week [2]

Core Insights - The 2-year Treasury yield has rebounded from a low of 3.477% on October 14, 2025, marking its lowest level since September 7, 2022, and is currently at 3.495% [2][3] - Future markets are anticipating two additional interest rate cuts this year, influenced by comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding the labor market and potential for further cuts [3] Treasury Yield Analysis - The 2-year Treasury yield serves as a key indicator for near-term interest rates and inflation expectations, reflecting market sentiment [2] - The recent increase in yields follows a period of low rates, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][3] Market Context - The market is currently navigating renewed trade tensions with China, which has heightened the attractiveness of 2-year Treasury notes [3]

Monetary Policy - China's central bank is holding back from aggressively easing monetary policy [1] - The central bank is refraining from interest-rate cuts [1] Economic Performance - China's economy recorded its worst month so far this year [1]

Turkey’s central bank said its monetary policy isn’t on a preset path, providing little indication on the size of future interest-rate cuts after it began lowering borrowing costs last month https://t.co/DT62Q7zr5G ...

Economic Indicators - New Zealand's jobless rate increased to a nearly five-year high [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The economic slowdown may lead the central bank to consider resuming interest-rate cuts [1]

Stocks gain as the US moved closer to trade deals with China, while expectations are rising for interest-rate cuts this year. Get market insight on Bloomberg Surveillance. @tomkeene @davidgura @LisaMateoTV are LIVE on YouTube. https://t.co/m9IglISGoz ...