Liquidity & Market Performance - Tightening liquidity is observed, drawing parallels to pre-COVID levels and the Trump years (2017-2019) when liquidity was being lowered [1] - Periods of increasing liquidity correlate with struggling financial markets, potentially contributing to current market conditions [2] Monetary Policy Outlook - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to ease monetary policy [2] - Treasury general account will funds as well [2]

Market Outlook & Economic Trends - Market reflects anticipation of a negotiated resolution to the government shutdown in the coming weeks [3] - Weak economic data suggests the Federal Reserve will likely implement a rate cut in December [3] - Cyclical sectors of the S&P 500 have experienced a significant collapse in relative price, nearing 35-year lows, indicating weakening economic conditions since the government shutdown [5] - Material stocks have plummeted since the shutdown, correlating with CPI inflation [6] - The economy is expected to slow, leading to broad easing from both monetary and fiscal authorities [9] Investment Strategy & Market Performance - Lower rates on short rates, lower bond yields, and a weaker dollar have been observed this year, alongside faster money growth [9] - High beta stocks, small-cap and micro-cap stocks, and international stocks are showing better results, reflecting policy changes [10] - Leadership is expected to emerge in high beta, small-cap, micro-cap, and international stocks [11] Economic Indicators & Concerns - ADP numbers are flat over the last 3 months [2] - Challenger layoffs have surged recently [3] - Consumer confidence is declining significantly [3]

Bitcoin is up 750% over the last 3 years (wow) as the Fed tightened monetary conditions.Fed Funds: 0.25% → 5.5% → 4.25%Balance Sheet: $9T → $6.5TNow that QT is ending and the Fed's policy rates are coming down to sub-3%, BTC now has the tailwinds of easing at its back. https://t.co/NbhLHz6A65Joe Consorti ⚡️ (@JoeConsorti):Bitcoin managed to rise from $18,000 to $126,000 as the Fed reduced its balance sheet.What do you think happens now that it's ending?🟢🟢🟢🟢 ...

🇺🇸 Fed chair Jerome Powell will give a speech tommorow at 12.20pm ET.Any mention of Easing will be bullish. https://t.co/Sqns303FtQ ...

Market Trends - Gold prices are near record highs [1] - Traders anticipate the US Federal Reserve easing monetary policy this week [1]

New Zealand’s central bank cut interest rates to a three-year low and signaled further easing, saying the economy has stalled https://t.co/ke0WMx1Ogt ...

Monetary Policy - China's central bank is holding back from aggressively easing monetary policy [1] - The central bank is refraining from interest-rate cuts [1] Economic Performance - China's economy recorded its worst month so far this year [1]

Monetary Policy - Norway's central bank holds rates [1] - The bank reiterates its plan to extend easing later this year [1] Previous Action - The central bank had a surprise rate cut in June [1]

Monetary Policy - Australia's central bank decided against lowering interest rates for a third time in four meetings [1] - The decision aligns with the bank's strategy of easing monetary policy in a "cautious and gradual" manner [1]

Norway’s underlying inflation rate rose for the first time in four months, largely matching expectations and cementing the central bank’s outlook for more easing after the summer https://t.co/iXh6lhUVqs ...