Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Metals Market - **Outlook for 2026**: Positive outlook driven by rate cuts and demand for real assets, with tight supply-demand balances and low inventories supporting prices [1][3] Precious Metals - **Geopolitical Risks**: Recent events in Venezuela are expected to drive safe haven inflows, supporting precious metals prices [4] - **Gold Forecast**: Projected to reach $4,800/oz by 4Q26, supported by falling interest rates and strong physical demand from central banks and ETFs [4][23] - **Silver Dynamics**: - 2025 marked the peak deficit for silver, but prices continue to rise due to its precious metal characteristics and tight physical markets [4][30] - China's new export license requirements may further support silver prices [4][30] - Index rebalancing may bring short-term downside risks, with an estimated $5 billion of silver futures needing to be sold [4][13] Base Metals - **Preferred Metals**: Aluminium and copper are favored due to supply challenges and new demand sources [5] - **Aluminium Supply**: Constrained globally, with production growth expected to be just 1.4% in 2026 [65] - **Copper Market**: - US copper imports are surging, keeping ex-US markets tight [45] - Elevated supply disruptions from 2025 are expected to spill over into 2026, with a forecasted market deficit of ~600 kt for 2026 [64] - Demand from China has softened, but there are signs of potential growth in 2026 due to government support for renewables [54][55] Demand and Supply Dynamics - **Gold Demand**: Central banks added approximately 630 tonnes of gold in the first nine months of 2025, but demand is expected to slow due to higher prices [14] - **Jewelry Demand**: Mixed signals with a rebound in Q3, but notable softening in November, particularly in China [22] - **Solar Demand for Silver**: Likely peaked, with expected declines in installations due to price pressures [31] Market Risks and Opportunities - **Investment Demand**: Likely to remain a key driver for both precious and industrial metals, with potential physical squeezes due to low inventories [42] - **Tariff Implications**: US tariffs on refined copper could significantly impact market dynamics, with recommendations for phased tariffs starting in 2027 [46] - **Nickel Supply Concerns**: Fears of supply cuts from Indonesia have driven prices higher, but elevated inventories may moderate impacts [74][82] Conclusion - The metals market is poised for a strong performance in 2026, with both precious and base metals showing potential for price increases driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks. However, there are also significant risks related to demand sensitivity, supply disruptions, and regulatory changes that could impact market dynamics.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview Basic Materials - China - **Copper Prices**: LME copper rose 1.5% WoW to US$10,856/t, while the China price increased 1.3% WoW to RMB87,200/t [1][31] - **Aluminum Prices**: LME aluminum slipped 0.2% WoW to US$2,830/t, while the China aluminum price increased 1.7% WoW to RMB21,910/t. Domestic aluminum margins improved by RMB395/t WoW to RMB6,094/t due to lower power costs [1][31][52] - **Gold Prices**: COMEX gold climbed 2% WoW to US$4,084/oz [1][11] - **Lithium Prices**: Average price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) rose 5.9% WoW to RMB85.2k/t [1][55] - **Uranium Prices**: Uranium U₃O₈ spot prices settled at US$77.7/lb, down 2.7% WoW [1][57] - **Cobalt Prices**: China cobalt spot price edged up 1% WoW to RMB395,000/t [1][63] Steel Industry - **Finished Steel Prices**: Rebar prices edged up 0.2% WoW to RMB3,218/t, and HRC rose 0.2% WoW to RMB3,298/t [2][66] - **Inventory and Consumption**: Finished steel inventory fell 1.7% WoW to 14.8 million tons, while apparent consumption slipped 0.7% WoW to 8.6 million tons [2][66] - **Iron Ore Prices**: Iron ore prices declined 1% WoW to USD104/t [2][66] - **Profit Margins**: Higher coke costs pressured margins, with rebar narrowing by RMB28/t WoW to –RMB392/t and HRC contracting by RMB36/t to –RMB380/t [2][66][75] Cement Industry - **Cement Prices**: Average national cement price traded higher by 0.6% WoW to RMB345/t. Prices in various provinces showed mixed trends [3][88] - **Demand Recovery**: National cement demand slightly recovered amid favorable weather conditions, with producers planning to push prices higher by year-end [3][88] - **Shipment and Inventory Ratios**: Nationwide shipment ratio decreased by 0.3 percentage points WoW to 40.0%, while inventory ratio was at 69.4%, down 0.2 percentage points WoW [3][20] Paper and Glass Industries - **Paper Prices**: Paper price rose by 1.76% WoW to RMB3,669/t, supported by supply shrinkage and low inventory [3][99] - **Glass Prices**: National average float glass price settled lower by 0.16% WoW to RMB1,195/t amid lukewarm demand. Xinyi float glass GPM was down 0.5 percentage points to 10.8% [3][22][98] Solar Materials - **Polysilicon Prices**: N-type polysilicon and granular silicon prices remained stable at RMB53/kg and RMB51/kg, respectively [3][109] - **Solar Glass Capacity**: Solar glass daily capacity climbed 1.43% WoW to 88,590t/day, with inventory days expanding 6.5% WoW to 25.63 [3][122] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The end of the U.S. government shutdown eased risk-off sentiment, supporting copper prices [1][31] - **Cement Producers' Strategy**: Cement producers are looking to increase prices to secure more profit by year-end [3][88] - **Steel Mill Margins**: Spot cash margins at steel mills indicate a challenging environment with negative margins for both rebar and HRC [2][75][81] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the performance and trends across various sectors within the basic materials industry in China.