Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant rally driven by central bank purchases and a surge in ETF buying, with expectations for record high prices in the coming years, despite potential short-term corrections [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Central bank buying has been a major driver of the gold rally, with record purchases over the past few years, but this year has seen a shift towards ETF buyers, accelerating at an unprecedented pace since 2020 [1][2]. - Current gold tonnage is just 20 tons shy of the all-time high reached in October 2020, while dollar values have already hit record highs [2]. - The investor base in the gold market is expanding rapidly, with strong demand from India, which is expected to continue due to seasonal consumption patterns [3][4]. Group 2: Price Forecasts - The company forecasts gold prices to average $4,000 per ounce in Q4, with potential dips below this mark, while also indicating that a short-term correction could benefit the longer-term trend [6][5]. - For the next year, the average price is projected to be $4,488, with Q4 2024 expected to average $4,750, suggesting a bullish outlook despite current overbought conditions [7][8]. Group 3: External Influences - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has historically impacted gold prices, but its current effect may not be fully priced in, as past shutdowns have shown inconsistent responses in gold price movements [9][10]. - Structural factors such as concerns over fiat currency debasement and geopolitical risks continue to support the gold rally, with investors seeking safe-haven assets amid market uncertainties [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the 0-3 month price target for gold from $3,500/oz to $3,300/oz [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The gold price has declined by over $100/oz since the downgrade, currently trading just below the target of $3,300/oz, with expectations of continued price consolidation around $3,100-$3,500/oz in Q3 [1][2] - The passing of the OBBBA and upcoming trade deals are anticipated to shift the growth narrative and reduce concerns regarding US growth, which may weigh on gold demand [2][3] - The report suggests that the gold market deficit is peaking and may have already seen its highs at $3,500/oz in late April [1][3] Summary by Sections Price Trends - Gold price reached an all-time high close of approximately $3,432/oz on June 13, 2025, but has since moderated lower due to geopolitical de-escalation and improved global growth outlook, down about 5% from the mid-June peak [2][3] - The report indicates that gold prices are expected to return to approximately $2,500-$2,700/oz by the second half of 2026, which is about 21-25% below the average forward prices for that period [3][10] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that declining investment demand from Q4 2025 could stem from improvements in global growth confidence as the stimulatory US budget takes effect and as the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates towards a neutral policy [3][10] - The analysis indicates that the call on bar and coin stockholders will decline sharply in 2026, leading to a corresponding fall in prices [8][10]