Core Viewpoint - Australia is projected to maintain its position as the world's largest iron ore producer, with production expected to reach 993.4 million tonnes (mt) by 2026, driven by ongoing project ramp-ups and new developments [1][3]. Production Overview - In 2024, Australia accounted for 36.8% of global iron ore production, with an output of 967.8 million tonnes in 2025, reflecting a 1.4% year-on-year increase [1]. - Key projects contributing to this growth include MRL's Onslow, BHP's South Flank, and Fortescue's Iron Bridge, along with the new Western Range mine, which has a production capacity of 25 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) [1]. Challenges and Adjustments - Operational challenges have impacted production, including the ramp-down of BHP's Yandi mine due to resource depletion, reduced output from Roy Hill amid lower iron ore prices, and weather-related disruptions like Cyclone Zelia [2]. - The Koolyanobbing mine was placed on care-and-maintenance due to limited reserves and high operating costs, further constraining output [2]. Future Projections - Australia's iron ore production is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2026, reaching 993.4 million tonnes, supported by ramp-ups at existing projects and the planned start-up of McPhee Creek and Lamb Creek [3]. - The Koolyanobbing mine is anticipated to resume operations in December 2025 following its sale [3]. Long-term Outlook - Over the forecast period from 2026 to 2035, Australia's iron ore output is expected to trend higher, despite a temporary dip in 2033 due to scheduled mine closures [4]. - New projects such as Mulga Downs, Rhodes Ridge, and others are expected to support supply, while depletion-driven shutdowns at various mines will partially offset this growth [4]. Growth Rate - Overall, Australia's iron ore production is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.1%, reaching 1,094.6 million tonnes by 2035 [5].

Core Insights - Global iron ore output is projected to increase by 1.9% in 2025, reaching 2,612.7 million tonnes, despite a decline in China's production due to weak domestic steel demand and construction slowdown [1] - The growth in iron ore production will be supported by rising outputs from India, Australia, Brazil, and emerging producers like Guinea, Iran, and Liberia [1] Group 1: Global Production Trends - Global iron ore output is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2026, reaching 2,728.9 million tonnes, driven by project ramp-ups in Guinea and Australia, along with expansions in Brazil [2] - China's iron ore output is anticipated to remain flat in 2025, with only a marginal growth of 0.5% [2] Group 2: Regional Contributions - The Republic of Guinea is emerging as a significant player, with expected iron ore output of 35.4 million tonnes in 2026, up from 2.9 million tonnes in 2025, supported by the Simandou projects [3] - Australia's output is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2026, with expectations to reach 1.1 billion tonnes by 2035, maintaining its position as the largest global producer [4] - Brazil's growth will be led by Vale, targeting 340 million to 360 million tonnes by 2026, alongside expansions at other major mines [5] Group 3: India's Role - India is expected to be the largest driver of global supply growth in 2026, with a projected output increase of 3.6% to 318.5 million tonnes, supported by strong domestic steel demand and investment momentum [5] - India's goal to scale steelmaking capacity to 300 million tonnes by FY2030-31 emphasizes the need for reliable iron ore availability, reinforcing its strategic role in the market [6] - The adoption of green steel technologies positions iron ore as a key commodity in India's long-term decarbonization agenda [6]