Workflow
Jobless Growth
icon
Search documents
Expect the FOMC to turn dovish next year, says Jefferies' David Zervos
Youtubeยท 2025-12-12 13:20
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent forecasts indicate a more optimistic outlook for economic growth, with revisions suggesting growth increases for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 710 basis points, while inflation expectations have been marked down by 30 basis points, reflecting a dovish stance on monetary policy [2][3][10]. Economic Outlook - The Fed's committee appears to embrace a supply-side perspective, suggesting that growth can occur without significant inflation risks, which contrasts with previous hawkish expectations [3][10]. - The unemployment rate has shown minimal change, remaining stable despite a rise from 3.5% to nearly 4% over the past three years, indicating underlying productivity changes and jobless growth [8][9]. Employment Insights - The employment landscape has weakened over the past three years, with extraordinary growth rates observed, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate, which suggests a disconnect between job creation and economic growth [8][9]. - The Fed's recognition of these dynamics in its latest forecast is seen as positive, as it indicates a shift away from a demand-driven growth perspective that could lead to restrictive monetary policies [10]. Future Monetary Policy - There is anticipation of a more dovish approach from the Fed moving forward, with expectations that the new committee will focus on supply-side economic strategies rather than being overly concerned with inflationary pressures [10][15]. - The composition of the Fed committee is expected to evolve, with potential new members likely to support a more balanced view on economic growth and inflation [12][15].