To supplement our Pop Mart high-frequency tracker report (link), we launch this tracker dedicated to China sales tracking, covering ~70% China revenue from offline store data and online platform data. November results indicate a sharp deceleration in offline growth and productivity, raising questions about 2026 sustainability. 13 January 2026 China Consumer Pop Mart China Sales Tracker: Deceleration in offline growth and productivity; risks in 2026 Melinda Hu +852 2123 2643 melinda.hu@bernsteinsg.com Kai Zh ...

This diagnosis is a grim echo of the work of Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of top hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, who has long warned of the “Big Cycle” debt trap. Dalio’s framework suggests that nations with massive debts eventually run out of good options. They are left with a choice between three politically poisonous options: austerity (massive spending cuts), default (which would be unthinkable for a reserve currency), or inflation (“printing money” in order to devalue the debt).That preference ...

Good morning. The U.S. economy closed out 2025 with a puzzling mix: sluggish job growth alongside accelerating productivity.The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 50,000 in December 2025, missing the 73,000 Dow Jones estimate and slowing from November’s revised gain of 56,000. November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 jobs, while October’s loss deepened to 173,000 from 105,000. For 2025 as a whole, payrolls grew by an average of 49 ...

Vi e w p o i n t | 09 Jan 2026 16:00:00 ET │ 14 pages US Equity Strategy Expect Normal Beats with Abnormal Revisions CITI'S TAKE We anticipate a normal ~4% beat for S&P 500 Q4 2025 EPS, pushing full- year earnings to $275. The key focus for investors will be forward commentary, particularly the 2026 EPS trajectory and beyond. Our $320 estimate remains above the bottom-up consensus of $312. From a top- down perspective, upward revisions to 2026 estimates should persist supported by advancing labor productivi ...

Recent data backs up that assessment. U.S. GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025 — the strongest pace since late 2023 and well above economists’ expectations for a 3.2% increase (4).“So far, the forecasts for a U.S. recession are coming up dry as productivity continues to backstop growth.”“The U.S. appears to be winning the trade war with tariffs curbing the imports of foreign goods, but America’s trading partners are not holding any grudge as they continue to buy more American goo ...

Core Insights - Labor productivity surged at an annualized rate of 4.9% in the third quarter, the fastest pace since 2023, while hourly compensation decreased by 0.2% after adjusting for inflation, resulting in reduced buying power for workers [1][7]. Economic Implications - Economists view the increase in productivity as beneficial for the long-term economic outlook, suggesting that higher productivity can lead to improved living standards and wage growth without triggering inflation [2][4]. - Increased productivity allows firms to enhance profitability, which can enable them to absorb higher costs, reinvest, or lower prices, potentially alleviating inflation concerns [3][4]. Technology and Productivity - The rise in productivity indicates that companies' goals of leveraging artificial intelligence to achieve more output with fewer workers may be within reach, although the full impact has yet to be realized [5][7]. - Experts caution that while productivity growth is promising, it remains uncertain how much it will benefit workers, with concerns about a "jobless expansion" where economic growth does not translate into improved labor market conditions [6][7].

This is The Takeaway from today's Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning, along with: What we're watching What we're reading Economic data releases and earnings A big jump in productivity helps explain what's been going on in the US economy. Worker productivity grew at its fastest clip in two years as businesses spent heavily on AI and pulled back on hiring. It took less labor to pump up GDP, generating growth without much more elbow grease or keyboard tapping fro ...

Productivity jumped in the third quarter, easing labor cost pressures and helping inflation. But the gains reflect how output is measured—more than an AI-driven efficiency boom. ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net sales of $1.1 billion, which is $192 million, or 20% higher than the previous year [15] - Adjusted operating profit increased by $38 million, or 24%, to $196 million, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 17.2%, up 50 basis points from the prior year [15] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share rose to $4.69, an increase of $0.72, or 18% over the prior year [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Acuity Brands Lighting (ABL) achieved sales of $895 million, a slight increase of $9 million, or 1% year-over-year, primarily due to growth in the independent sales network [16] - Adjusted operating profit for ABL increased by $6 million to $160 million, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 17.9%, up 60 basis points compared to the prior year [16] - Acuity Intelligent Spaces (AIS) reported sales of $257 million, an increase of $184 million, benefiting from the inclusion of three months of QSC sales [17] - AIS adjusted operating profit was $57 million, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 22%, up 100 basis points compared to the prior year [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The lighting market remains tepid, with the company noting that the market is waiting for clarity around interest rates, inflation, and policy [13] - The AIS business is strategically differentiated and positioned for value creation, continuing to perform well despite market challenges [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on increasing product vitality, elevating service levels, and using technology to improve and differentiate products [5] - The introduction of new products, such as the EAX Area Luminaire and the combination of Distech and QSC technologies, aims to enhance customer experiences and operational efficiency [6][10] - The company is committed to driving productivity and creating autonomous spaces through data interoperability [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term performance of both the lighting and spaces businesses, despite current market challenges [13] - The company is targeting 50-100 basis points of operating profit margin improvement per year, indicating a focus on long-term margin enhancement [24] Other Important Information - The company generated $141 million in cash flow from operations, which is $9 million higher than the same period last year [19] - The company allocated $28 million to repurchase shares and repaid $100 million of its term loan during the quarter [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Gross margin seasonality and future expectations - Management acknowledged the impact of tariffs on gross margins and expressed confidence in the ability to drive margins at ABL over the long term [22][24] Question: ABL operating expenses and productivity investments - Management indicated that the muted step-down in operating expenses from Q4 to Q1 was due to prior cost-cutting measures [25][27] Question: Cross-sell opportunities between ABL and AIS - Management emphasized that cross-sell opportunities should be driven by customer demand rather than aggressive pushing of products [31] Question: Backlog normalization and future growth - Management confirmed that historical seasonality may be skewed due to elevated backlog levels, suggesting potential slower growth in the upcoming quarters [36] Question: Divergence between ISN and DSN - Management noted that while there is some noise in the accounts, the combined performance of ISN and DSN is in line with expectations [40] Question: Tariffs and potential impacts on pricing - Management discussed the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the potential implications for pricing strategies [55][56] Question: Backlog levels and market outlook - Management indicated that backlog levels are now more consistent with pre-COVID periods, suggesting a return to normal order rates [58]

Core Insights - Businesses are effectively managing tariffs, which is positively impacting their operations and financial performance [1] - The integration of AI technologies is significantly boosting productivity across various sectors, leading to improved economic prospects [1] - Overall, these factors are contributing to enhanced expectations for the economy, corporate profits, and financial markets [1] Business Management - Companies are adapting to tariff changes, which helps mitigate potential negative impacts on their profitability [1] - Strategic management of tariffs is becoming a critical focus for businesses to maintain competitive advantage [1] AI and Productivity - The adoption of AI is driving substantial productivity gains, allowing companies to operate more efficiently [1] - Increased productivity from AI is expected to translate into higher profit margins for businesses [1] Economic Outlook - The combination of effective tariff management and AI-driven productivity improvements is fostering a more optimistic economic environment [1] - Financial markets are responding positively to these developments, indicating a potential for growth in investments [1]