with more on this. What are we going to do, Steve, on Friday at 8:30. >> Maybe get off the data hamster wheel for a little bit.I think take a broader view. The government payroll, Melissa, is still vital, but over a short period of time, there's still ways to figure out what's going on broadly with the jobs market and the economy. ADP volatile monthtomonth.We learned that in spades today, but over the course of a year lines up pretty well with the private sector data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In ...

Key Takeaways Pre-market Futures Add to Yesterday's All-Time Closing HighsThe Outlook for an Accommodative Fed Is Set, Even with Higher Inflation on the HorizonStruggles for the Labor Market, Looking AheadFriday, September 19, 2025It’s the last Friday of trading for the summer of 2025, a week and a half from the end of calendar Q3, the major economic reports of the week have already been released and the Fed has made its monetary policy decision. Feels like a good time to put our feet up for a minute — espe ...

One interest rate cut makes sense as insurance against the dangers that the jobs market is weakening too much. Going much further risks a mistake that America’s central bank cannot afford https://t.co/hUENf15q3q ...

One interest rate cut makes sense as insurance against the dangers that the jobs market is weakening too much. Going much further risks a mistake that America’s central bank cannot afford https://t.co/ICMTeqUMbV ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is expected to influence the housing market by encouraging more buyers, which may lead to increased property prices [3][6]. - The individual mentioned in the letter has a stable financial situation with a monthly income of $6,000, consisting of various retirement accounts and Social Security, indicating a comfortable lifestyle [2][6]. - The impact of the Fed's rate cut is less significant for those on fixed incomes, as they do not rely on fluctuating interest rates for business operations or debt consolidation [6]. Group 2 - The letter highlights the broader economic context, including concerns about the slowing jobs market and the effects of tariffs on business costs and consumer prices [6]. - The rate cut is anticipated to positively affect the stock market, benefiting retirement accounts like IRAs, as Wall Street may respond favorably to the Fed's actions [6].

Market Performance - S&P 500 下跌 03% [1] Economic Concerns - 消费者情绪报告显示，对关税影响、通货膨胀和就业市场的担忧日益加剧 [1]

Government Data Integrity & Economic Impact - The report discusses concerns that the US federal government is manipulating economic data, specifically jobs reports, for political gain [3][4] - The action of firing or discrediting those who report unfavorable data is likened to authoritarianism and petulance [1][2] - Revisions to previously reported jobs numbers show a significant downward adjustment of 258,000, impacting Wall Street's view of the job market [9] - Wall Street is concerned about the reliability of government data and the potential for manipulation, which could have significant implications for investment decisions [15] - The primary concern for investors is the weakness of the job market and the overall economy, rather than the political arguments surrounding the data [15][16] Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) & Data Transparency - The BLS commissioner typically sees the numbers shortly before they are published, after the data has been prepared and locked into the computer system [2] - The process of compiling the jobs report involves hundreds of people following detailed procedures, with automation playing a significant role [1][11] - Downward revisions of prior reports are a normal part of the data reporting process as more data becomes available [8][9] - There is no evidence to support the claim that the jobs numbers were wrong or manipulated prior to the revisions [7] - The transparency of the BLS's data policy is emphasized, suggesting that any attempts to manipulate the data would be easily detected [14]

September Rate Cuts already looking like a foregone conclusion now.Non-Farm Payroll data came in and missed BAD.(77k to 110k expected)On top of that Jobs data from last report was adjusted DOWN 125k jobs.This is showing the jobs market is not nearly as strong as expected.The dollar and 10 year treasury bonds BOTH took massive hits on price action, reverting back to risk on vs risk off16% swing from no cut to 1 rate cut in September after todays data points were released. ...

Chinese households became more pessimistic last quarter and their view of the jobs market fell to the worst ever, according to a survey by the central bank. https://t.co/mJFN2vp0Eu ...

Market Trends & Interest Rates - Treasury yields are rising as investors react to weaker jobs data and the potential impact of President Trump's tax and spending package [1] - Interest rates may have peaked in terms of low rates, particularly given the holiday-shortened week [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield continues to move higher [3] Labor Market Analysis - ADP small business job loss data at 8:15 AM EST made some traders nervous, causing yields to drop initially [2] - A potentially weakening labor market could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions [4] - Uncertainty remains whether the day's report is indicative of the larger jobs number to be released tomorrow [5] Federal Reserve (The Fed) & Monetary Policy - A weakening labor market could hasten the Fed's easing campaign [4] - Fed fund futures gravitated towards the upside, indicating expectations of more easing [4] - The market is unsure if today's report is a one-off or a clue about tomorrow's jobs number, impacting expectations for the Fed [5] Bond Market Dynamics - The 2-year yield reflects the most information regarding the Fed [3] - The 210 spread (difference between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields) bounced back and steepened [3] - The D's contract (likely referring to a specific futures contract) initially reflected the two-year yield's movement but almost returned to unchanged [5]