Wage growth for the lowest-paid workers is starting to slow as a worsening jobs market undercuts the bargaining power of a section of the workforce that has proved resistant to the Bank of England’s inflation-fighting efforts, new data shows https://t.co/Leh8JknscY ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve staff believes that federal data may be overstating job creation by as much as 60,000 jobs per month, indicating a potential contraction in the job market [1] Group 1 - The implication of the overstatement suggests that the job market might be shrinking, which could have broader economic consequences [1]

Fed is more worried about jobs than inflation ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.3% as Treasury futures rose, indicating a weakening jobs market [1][2] - ADP's report revealed that private employers lost an average of 11,250 jobs per week last month, contrasting with a previous report showing an increase of 42,000 jobs for October [2] Economic Indicators - The decline in the dollar and rise in Treasury futures are linked to the latest employment data, suggesting market reactions to economic conditions [1] - The discrepancy in job data is attributed to different methodologies used in the reports, with the latest data covering a four-week average [2]

And absent all of the data that the Fed would usually have, um, what have policy makers been doing. >> So, there are private sector gauges, gauges of consumer confidence, gauges of industrial activity, gauges of where the jobs market is at. Uh, there are um those private sector indicators that the Fed is lean on, which is useful.They they did of course get all important inflation data last week which was the one data release that the government effectively greenlighted because it's important for the social ...

Market Trends - Jobs market shows signs of stabilizing [1] - Princes Group confirms plans to float in London [1] Industry News - European football brings Barcelona back into the fold [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the expertise of Ernest Hoffman, a Crypto and Market Reporter for Kitco News, highlighting his extensive background in market news and journalism [3]. Group 1 - Ernest Hoffman has over 15 years of experience in writing, editing, broadcasting, and producing for various media and cultural organizations [3]. - He began his career in market news in 2007, establishing a broadcast division that created a fast web-based audio news service [3]. - Hoffman has a Bachelor's degree in Journalism from Concordia University [3].

Labor Market Analysis - Government payroll data remains vital for understanding the jobs market and the economy, despite ADP's volatility [1] - ADP data aligns well with the Bureau of Labor Statistics private sector data over a year, with a year-to-date difference of only 9,000 jobs per month in August [2] - Alternative data may not accurately reflect changes if jobs are at an inflection point [3] - Jobless claims provide data on firings, but not hiring [3] Key Indicators - Continuing claims plus the Conference Board's employment data on jobs hard to get serve as a good proxy for the unemployment rate [4] - Hiring intentions in the small business NFIB survey are considered the best single indicator of payrolls for the month ahead, showing signs of stability after weakening earlier in the summer [5] Government Sector Impact - Trump administration layoffs of federal workers are expected to impact job data this month and next, with no private sector data replacement [6] - ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 jobs for September, partly due to revisions [6] - Revisions suggest a softer job market than previously believed [6]

Economic Overview - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has reduced the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00-4.25%, marking the first cut of 2025 with expectations for two more cuts by year-end [4][11] - The current economic environment shows a weakening jobs market, with an average of only +36K new jobs filled over the past four months, significantly lower than previous averages [6][7] Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate stands at +4.3%, the highest since October 2021, with potential underreporting due to immigration crackdowns and uncounted new graduates [7][8] - The labor market struggles are compounded by the new FOMC member, Stephen Miran, advocating for aggressive rate cuts, which may influence future employment dynamics [8][11] Inflation and Economic Policy - Inflation rates are currently above the Fed's target, with the August CPI and July's core PCE at +2.9%, raising concerns about future monetary policy effectiveness [5][12] - The potential for lower interest rates could stimulate spending and economic growth, but uncertainties remain regarding job creation due to technological advancements and immigration policies [12][13]

Monetary Policy - One interest rate cut is reasonable as insurance against a weakening jobs market [1] - Further interest rate cuts risk a mistake the central bank cannot afford [1]