Summary of Hesai Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hesai Group (HSAI.O) - **Industry**: LiDAR technology and automotive sector - **Current Rating**: Upgraded from Equal-weight to Overweight - **Price Target**: Increased from US$23.00 to US$26.00 Key Points and Arguments Industry Dynamics 1. **Growing LiDAR Adoption**: Hesai is gaining market share in China, with LiDAR adoption expected to continue increasing due to regulatory requirements for L2+ smart driving systems. Over 20% of NEVs sold in China were equipped with LiDAR as of May 2025 [12][15] 2. **Volume Share Gain**: Hesai's market share in LiDAR reached 37% in May 2025, up from 22% a year prior, surpassing competitors like Robosense and Huawei [3][13] 3. **International Expansion**: The company anticipates increased demand for LiDAR in overseas markets, with expectations that 15-20% of vehicles sold outside China will be L2+ smart driving enabled by 2030 [4][18] Financial Projections 1. **Revenue Growth**: Revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by 3-7% to Rmb4.5 billion and Rmb6.1 billion, respectively, driven by a higher mix of high-end products [34] 2. **Earnings Growth**: Projected earnings CAGR from 2025 to 2027 is now estimated at 105%, up from 94% previously, with net profit estimates increasing by 7-12% [6][35] 3. **Gross Profit Margin**: Expected gross margins for 2026 and 2027 are adjusted to 40% and 39.3%, reflecting a better product mix and potential cost savings [7][35] Market Opportunities 1. **Robo-business Potential**: The company sees significant growth potential in robotaxis and smart home robotics, estimating a total addressable market (TAM) of US$5 billion for humanoid and smart home robotics [5][19] 2. **ASP and Margin Upside**: Higher average selling prices (ASP) and margins are expected from overseas projects, particularly for high-end products [20][38] Risks and Challenges 1. **ASP Declines**: There is a risk of greater-than-expected ASP declines and gross profit margin dilution if pricing pressures increase [27] 2. **In-house Development by OEMs**: Competition from OEMs developing their own LiDAR solutions poses a potential risk, although the current market dynamics suggest limited incentives for this [28] 3. **Regulatory and Demand Fluctuations**: Slower adoption of L2+ ADAS due to tightening regulations and softening vehicle demand could lead to excess supply [29] Valuation and Price Target 1. **Valuation Methodology**: The primary valuation method used is discounted cash flow (DCF), with a WACC of 12.2% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [38] 2. **Price Target Implications**: The new price target of US$26 implies a 30x P/E multiple for 2026 estimates, representing a 22% upside potential from the current stock price [36][44] Conclusion - **Investment Thesis**: The upgrade to Overweight reflects confidence in Hesai's ability to capitalize on growing LiDAR adoption, robust project pipelines, and emerging opportunities in robotics, despite potential risks from pricing pressures and competition [48][52]