Over a week, Magnificent Seven stocks nearly recouped losses, following the evolving Greenland situation since last Friday. Over the last three months, Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (NYSE:MAGS) now shows 0.2% gains, or 15% over one year. This week, four out of seven companies will deliver earnings – Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) – with a combined market weight of $10 trillion. Except for Apple, which reports Q1 '26 on Thursday, the other ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla Inc. has experienced a decline in sales for the second consecutive year, with its share price retreating 4.0% in the past week, while being overtaken by BYD as the world's largest seller of fully electric vehicles. Despite this, Tesla's stock remains 46.8% higher than six months ago, outperforming the S&P 500 during that period [1]. Financial Performance - Tesla's stock is only 9.4% higher than a year ago, underperforming the Nasdaq. However, since its IPO on June 29, 2010, the stock has seen a meteoric rise of 27,050% [2]. - Tesla's revenues have shown significant growth over the years, with projected revenues for 2023 at $96.773 billion and a net income of $14.997 billion. The company has seen a steady increase in revenues from $4.046 billion in 2015 to $81.462 billion in 2022 [6]. Key Drivers for Performance - Improved Margins: Tesla has been cutting manufacturing costs and expanding margins, leading to strong revenue and net income gains since 2020. The establishment of gigafactories in Shanghai and Berlin is expected to reduce export-related costs and increase sales [7]. - R&D Advancements: Tesla is leading in the development of Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and robotaxi initiatives, with plans to deploy 500 robotaxis in Austin and 1,000 in Silicon Valley by year-end [8]. - Diversified Business Segments: Tesla's growth in its Supercharger, energy, and battery businesses distinguishes it from its EV peers, with plans for a new Optimus robot production line in Fremont, California [9]. Stock Forecast - Wall Street's consensus 12-month price target for Tesla is $401.40 per share, with some analysts maintaining Buy-equivalent ratings based on long-term outlooks. The highest price target is set at $600 by Wedbush [10]. - The projected revenue growth for Tesla is expected to climb from $112.09 billion in 2025 to $297.43 billion in 2030, with normalized EPS growth from $1.91 in 2025 to $11.24 in 2030. The year-end 2026 price target is $461.73, suggesting a 7% upside potential in the next 12 months [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The year 2026 is projected to be a breakthrough year for the smart driving and robotaxi industries, with significant advancements expected [3]. - Nvidia's release of the open-source VLA (Vision-Language-Action) model, Alpamayo 1, is anticipated to catalyze developments in autonomous driving, with the first vehicle equipped with this model, the Mercedes CLA, expected to hit the roads in the U.S. in Q1 2026 [2]. - The report highlights the expected growth in the robotaxi sector, with Waymo projected to exceed 450,000 rides per week by 2025 and Tesla's robotaxi operations expanding significantly in Austin, which is expected to have a notable financial impact in the second half of 2026 [3]. - Regulatory advancements are also noted, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology granting L3 access licenses to two companies, and the Ministry of Public Security announcing the initiation of national standards for autonomous driving regulations [3]. Industry Overview - The automotive industry comprises 267 companies, with a total market capitalization of 4,785.2 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 4,146.4 billion [5]. - The industry has shown strong performance, with absolute returns of 8.0% over one month, 26.4% over six months, and 54.0% over twelve months [7]. - Relative performance against the benchmark has also been positive, with 5.1% over one month, 7.9% over six months, and 29.0% over twelve months [7]. Related Companies - Key players in the industry include Bertel, Nexteer, Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame, Desay SV, and others involved in various aspects of smart driving technology and robotaxi operations [4].

Core Insights - Tesla experienced a significant decline in sales, with 418,227 electric vehicles sold in Q4, marking a 15.6% decrease from the same period in 2024, leading to a second consecutive annual sales decline [1][2] - BYD surpassed Tesla in annual sales of battery-electric vehicles for the first time, with BYD's sales rising nearly 28% to 2.26 million units in 2025, while Tesla delivered about 1.64 million vehicles for the year [2][3] Sales Performance - Tesla recorded its first-ever annual sales decline in 2024, attributed to the end of the $7,500 tax credit for new EVs, which previously drove record sales [3] - Sales hit their lowest level since 2022 in November, despite the introduction of cheaper versions of the Model 3 and Y vehicles [4] Market Challenges - Tesla faced intense competition in China from local manufacturers offering advanced electric models at lower prices, and in Europe, sales dropped significantly due to backlash against CEO Musk's political endorsements, with December registrations falling 66% in France and 44% in Spain [5] - Analysts noted that Tesla's product lineup has become stale, with no new vehicle launches since the Cybertruck in 2023, which has underperformed in sales [6] Stock Performance and Future Initiatives - Despite sales challenges, Tesla's stock price reached a record high in December, driven by investor optimism regarding the robotaxi rollout [7] - The company is preparing for mass production of its Cybercab robotaxi, which lacks a steering wheel or pedals, and aims to expand its autonomous ride-hailing service [8] - Musk indicated that the upcoming launch of "unsupervised" Full Self-Driving software is expected to boost vehicle demand, with plans for the Austin robotaxi service to operate without safety monitors by the end of 2025 [9][10]

Group 1: Tesla - Tesla's stock has reached an all-time high and is close to surpassing Meta Platforms and Broadcom in market capitalization, potentially becoming the sixth-most-valuable U.S. company [1] - Investor excitement is driven by Tesla's robotics and AI investments, particularly its autonomous driving technology and the expanding robotaxi project, indicating a shift from traditional EV sales to self-driving cars and robots [2] - Tesla's profitability has declined significantly, with operating margins dropping to 5.8% in Q3 2025 from 10.8% in Q3 2024, highlighting challenges in funding its future initiatives [3] - The current valuation of Tesla is based on future earnings potential rather than current performance, which may lead to underperformance in the stock over the next three to five years despite potential exceptional results [4] Group 2: Nvidia - Nvidia is capitalizing on AI opportunities by selling GPUs and related software to data centers, marking a shift from its previous focus on gaming and automotive markets [6] - Nvidia faces increasing competition from companies like Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom, with Broadcom collaborating with Alphabet to develop custom AI chips, which could impact Nvidia's margins [7] - Despite potential margin declines, Nvidia is positioned to become the most profitable company globally, supported by a strong balance sheet and substantial free cash flow for long-term investments and R&D [8] - Nvidia's R&D is bolstered by cash flow, leading to a rapidly evolving product pipeline, including the upcoming release of its new AI-optimized GPUs, Rubin [9][10] - Nvidia's valuation is more reasonable at 37.2 times forward earnings compared to Tesla's 292.9, suggesting a better risk-reward profile for investors looking towards 2026 [12]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock is experiencing volatility due to competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market and execution risks related to its autonomous vehicle roadmap, leading to reassessment of growth expectations by investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Tesla's stock has fluctuated this week, reflecting investor concerns over growth amid competition and execution risks [1][2]. - The broader technology sector, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," has seen profit-taking, impacting Tesla's stock as investors question high valuations driven by artificial intelligence enthusiasm [3]. - Tesla's US market share has decreased from 52.7% in 2024 to 43.2% in Q1 2025, with BYD leading the global market at 15.4%, which pressures Tesla's pricing and margins [4]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - Analysts have revised estimates, projecting a 10.5% decrease in volumes for 2026 and an 18.5% reduction in cumulative deliveries through 2040 due to slower EV adoption in mature markets and increased competition [5]. - Tesla recalled over 10,000 Powerwall 2 battery units in the US due to fire incidents, raising concerns about product quality and regulatory oversight [5]. - Investors are monitoring the potential removal of "safety monitors" from Model Y robotaxis, as delays could indicate challenges in executing the autonomous driving roadmap [6]. Group 3: Analyst Sentiment - Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla from Buy to Hold, citing valuation concerns and lower delivery expectations, indicating skepticism about the stock's ability to achieve significant upside without operational breakthroughs [7]. - Some analysts remain optimistic about Tesla's robotaxi potential, with expectations to expand to eight to ten metropolitan areas by the end of 2025 [9]. - The analyst consensus is divided, with some viewing current weakness as a buying opportunity for long-term investors in AI and autonomy, while others caution against a slowdown in delivery growth [10].

Core Insights - Elon Musk aims to expand Tesla's full self-driving (FSD) technology into new markets by 2026, with a significant focus on Europe [1] - The approval of supervised FSD in the Netherlands is a crucial step towards broader European deployment, potentially enhancing Tesla's growth and robotaxi concept [4][7] Tesla's Stock Valuation - Tesla's stock valuation is heavily influenced by developments in its robotaxi and FSD businesses, which are closely related but distinct [2] - The current supervised FSD is available in several regions, including the U.S., Canada, and China, but is not the same as the unsupervised version targeted for robotaxi rollout [3][4] FSD Approval and Market Impact - The approval of supervised FSD in the Netherlands could lead to wider approvals across the EU, increasing potential customer base [7][8] - A successful approval process would enhance the investment case for Tesla, as the stock's valuation is not primarily based on its electric vehicle business [9] Future Production Plans - Tesla is committed to ramping up production of Cybercabs in 2026, driven by confidence in the near-term availability of unsupervised FSD [9][11] - The ongoing rollout of robotaxis and the approval of FSD are critical for maintaining investor interest and stock performance [11][12]

Core Insights - Tesla Inc.'s share price has increased by 4.8% over the past week, driven by strong sales in China and record annual sales in Norway, although production of the Cybertruck is being scaled down due to softening demand [1] - The stock is up 27.1% year-over-year and has seen a remarkable gain of over 28,000% since its IPO in 2010 [2] Financial Performance - Tesla's revenues and net income have shown significant growth, with revenues increasing from $4.046 billion in 2015 to $96.773 billion in 2023, and net income rising from $888.7 million in 2015 to $14.997 billion in 2023 [8] - The company is projected to continue its revenue growth, with estimates reaching $297.43 billion by 2030 [17] Key Drivers for Performance - Improved margins due to cost-cutting measures and the establishment of gigafactories in strategic locations are expected to enhance sales and reduce export-related costs [11] - Research and development in Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxi technologies positions Tesla ahead of competitors, with plans to deploy 1,000 robotaxis in Silicon Valley by year-end [12] - Diversification into energy storage and charging station networks has further strengthened Tesla's market position [13] Stock Forecast - Wall Street's consensus 12-month price target for Tesla is $392.93, which is 12.0% lower than the recent closing price, with various analysts providing differing outlooks [16] - The year-end price target from 24/7 Wall St. is $351.73, indicating limited upside potential, while projections for normalized EPS and revenue growth suggest a strong long-term outlook [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - Lucid Group presents a high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity, with a current market cap of $4 billion compared to Tesla's valuation of over $1.2 trillion, indicating significant potential for growth if it can replicate Tesla's success [1][2]. Group 1: Market Position and Valuation - Lucid Group's stock has the potential to yield 300 times the original investment if it reaches Tesla's current size [2]. - The valuation of Lucid Group is significantly lower than Tesla, with Rivian at $18 billion and Lucid at $4 billion, highlighting the competitive landscape in the EV market [1][3]. Group 2: Business Model and Strategy - Unlike Tesla, which is valued for its diverse business model including robotaxis, Lucid is primarily focused on car manufacturing and technology licensing [3][7]. - Lucid has made strategic moves towards becoming a service provider, exemplified by a $300 million investment deal with Uber to supply 20,000 vehicles for Uber's robotaxi division [5][7]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Risks - Despite Lucid's revenue growth from nearly $0 in 2021 to over $1 billion today, shareholders have experienced a loss of more than 90% of their original investment due to share dilution [8][9]. - The company remains unprofitable and has had to issue more shares to maintain operations, which has diluted shareholder value [9][10]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The global robotaxi market is projected to be worth between $5 trillion and $10 trillion, presenting a significant opportunity for companies like Lucid if they can successfully transition to this model [4][7]. - The EV industry has seen over 30 companies fail in the past decade, emphasizing the challenges and capital requirements for growth and profitability [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle (EV) sector is poised for significant growth by 2026, with three companies—Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid Group—highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their unique market positions and growth strategies [2]. Group 1: Tesla - Tesla is recognized as a leading EV producer with substantial capital access, focusing on a robotaxi service as a major growth opportunity rather than just car manufacturing [3][4]. - The company launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, with plans to expand to 8 to 10 new cities by the end of 2025, aiming for millions of self-driving taxis by the end of 2026 [4][6]. - Analysts like Dan Ives suggest that the robotaxi opportunity could potentially add $1 trillion to Tesla's market cap by the end of 2026, indicating significant growth potential if the company meets its targets [6][7]. Group 2: Rivian - Rivian is positioned as a value stock with a market cap of $15 billion, significantly smaller than Tesla's $1.4 trillion, and has a lower price-to-sales ratio of 3 compared to Tesla's 16 [8][9]. - The company plans to begin production of three new affordable models (R2, R3, and R3X) next quarter, all priced under $50,000, which aligns with consumer preferences as nearly 70% of Americans want vehicles in this price range [11][12]. - Rivian's strategy to introduce affordable models could lead to substantial sales growth, similar to Tesla's early success [12]. Group 3: Lucid Group - Lucid Group is characterized as a high-risk, high-reward investment, with shares trading at around 6 times sales, placing it between Rivian and Tesla in terms of valuation [13]. - The company plans to launch new affordable models, but these are not expected until at least the end of 2026, potentially delaying growth compared to its competitors [13][15]. - Lucid is involved in the robotaxi market through a deal to deliver 20,000 vehicles to Uber, but lacks a long-term revenue stream from this partnership, which may limit its growth potential [14][15].