Summary of Global LNG Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the global LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) market, discussing potential oversupply risks and pricing dynamics in the coming years [1][2]. Key Points 1. Potential Oversupply Risks - Investors are concerned that oversupply in the LNG market could emerge as early as late 2026 or 2027, earlier than the forecasted 2028 [2][9]. - Approximately 100 million tons per annum (Mtpa) of new capacity is expected to come online in 2026-2027, but a cautious view is taken, modeling effective capacity growth at an average of 38 Mt/year through 2027 [2][9]. 2. US LNG Exposure to Oversupply - US LNG is seen as more vulnerable to oversupply risks due to rising uncontracted volumes and higher structural costs [3][15]. - The share of uncontracted global LNG is projected to rise to 47% by 2030, up from 37% in 2025, with US uncontracted volumes expected to reach 24% [3][16]. - The longer shipping routes from the US to Asia add costs, making Qatari LNG delivery cheaper by $0.8-0.9/mmBtu [3][16]. 3. Price Decline Expectations - There is a consensus among investors that gas prices are likely to trend lower, with expectations of JKM at $8/mmBtu and TTF at $7/mmBtu by 2030 [4][26]. - Seasonal price dynamics are anticipated, with summer prices potentially falling below annual averages [4][26]. 4. Supply Momentum and FIDs - An additional 29 Mtpa of projects have reached Final Investment Decisions (FIDs), bringing total FIDs to over 70 Mtpa, with potential to reach 80 Mtpa this year [5][40]. - Key factors influencing supply include Russian gas dynamics and China's LNG demand amid geopolitical tensions [5][42]. 5. Shipping Costs and Market Dynamics - Current shipping rates are below the five-year average, but a tightening is expected due to market growth and the scrapping of older vessels [8][30]. - Shipping costs to Asia are projected to rise to over $2/mmBtu by 2030, influenced by congestion and route disruptions [30][31]. 6. Geopolitical Factors - The EU's sanctions on Russian LNG imports starting January 2027 are expected to significantly reduce dependency on Russian gas [42]. - China's LNG demand will be influenced by the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan and developments in Russian gas projects [45]. Additional Insights - A mild winter in 2025/26 could lead to higher end-season storage levels, reducing the need for summer LNG injections [10]. - The anticipated increase in US gas-fired generation capacity in 2027-28 is expected to support demand despite lower liquefaction utilization rates [27][28]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the global LNG market, highlighting potential risks, pricing expectations, and geopolitical influences that could shape the industry's future.