RT The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)Asia is the most exposed region to a shortage of LNG:~85% of LNG transiting the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asia, with limited rerouting options.Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan are running LNG trade deficits of -1.5% of GDP, meaning they are the most vulnerable to shortages.Japan, the world's 2nd-largest LNG importer, is also deeply exposed at -1.0% of GDP.China is the biggest importer in volume terms, but its deficit as a % of GDP is almost flat due to the size of i ...

Core Insights - Qatar's Energy Minister Al-Kaabi warns of a potential global LNG and natural gas shortage post-2035 due to insufficient investment in energy infrastructure and rising demand from the AI sector [1] - Global LNG demand is projected to increase from 400 million tons to 700 million tons annually over the next decade, while oil prices remain below the $70-80 per barrel range needed for infrastructure investments [1][2] Industry Trends - AI is contributing to 10% to 20% of energy demand in various countries, highlighting the growing influence of technology on energy consumption [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates a record addition of 300 billion cubic meters (bcm) of LNG export capacity by 2030, primarily from the U.S. and Qatar [2] Market Dynamics - The anticipated influx of LNG supply is expected to alleviate tight and volatile global gas markets, potentially lowering prices for gas importers [3] - Contrarily, some experts, including TotalEnergies' CEO, express concerns about an oversupply of LNG in the U.S. due to excessive plant construction [3][4] Company Developments - NextDecade Corp. has made a positive final investment decision for Train 4 at its Rio Grande LNG plant, which will have a capacity of 48 million tonnes per annum (mpta) [4] - The project costs for Train 4 are estimated at $6.7 billion, with financing structured as 40% equity and 60% debt [4] - Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG plant commenced production in December 2024, achieving rapid development with a nameplate capacity of 20 mpta [5]