LPG market analysis

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永安期货LPG早报-20250725
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 09:05
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PG futures contract price fluctuated and declined. Although the chemical demand is expected to be strong, the decline in oil prices and the weakening of international LPG prices led to a weaker futures price. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4486. The basis strengthened to 433 (+93). The inter - month reverse spread strengthened due to weak spot and main contract roll - over. The registered warrant volume is 8804 lots (+500), with Qingdao Yunda adding 500 lots. The external market price continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio increased. It is expected that the domestic LPG market will continue a narrow - range oscillation [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Content Price and Market Data - From July 18 to July 24, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG showed certain fluctuations. The daily change on July 24 was 0 for South China, East China, and Shandong LPG. The price of propane CFR South China increased by 1, and propane CIF Japan increased by 16. The MB propane spot price increased by 1. The price of Shandong alkylated oil remained unchanged, and the price of Shandong ether - after carbon four increased by 50. The main contract basis decreased by 56 [1] - The monthly spread declined, with the 08 - 09 spread at 31 and the 08 - 10 spread at - 402. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed. On Thursday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4443. FEI and CP rebounded, PP strengthened significantly, the production profit of FEI and CP to PP oscillated, and the CP production cost is lower than FEI [1] Weekly Outlook - The PG futures contract price fluctuated and declined. The decline in oil prices and the weakening of international LPG prices led to a weaker futures price despite strong chemical demand expectations. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4486. The basis strengthened to 433 (+93). The inter - month reverse spread strengthened due to weak spot and main contract roll - over. The registered warrant volume is 8804 lots (+500), with Qingdao Yunda adding 500 lots [1] - The external market price continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio increased. In terms of regional spreads, PG - CP reached 27 (+8), FEI - MB reached 163 (+6), FEI - CP reached - 5.5 (+9.5); the US - Asia arbitrage window opened; AFEI propane declined significantly, and the CP arrival discount decreased slightly. FEI - MOPJ increased to - 43.75 (-1.75) [1] - PDH profit improved, and MTBE export profit declined. With high unloading volumes, port inventories increased significantly, and factory inventories increased slightly. The commercial volume decreased by 0.98%, mainly due to reduced external sales from the main refinery in Maoming, South China, increased self - use in Shandong, and limited supply in East China [1] - Chemical demand is strong; PDH operating rate increased significantly to 71.78% (+10.91pct) due to the restart of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase III and Zhenhua Petrochemical, and the increased load of Quanzhou Guoheng and Hebei Haiwei at the end of last week. Liaoning Jinfa plans to resume operation next week; the alkylation operating rate increased, and Qifa Chemical's alkylation unit plans to resume production next week; MTBE export orders increased. However, weak combustion demand is expected to keep the domestic LPG market in a narrow - range oscillation [1]