今年以来，中国期货市场持续发展，资金总量近日首破2万亿元大关，迎来里程碑时刻。伴随大宗商品 和金融市场波动加大，不少投资者对参与期货市场表现出浓厚兴趣，期货新开户数量明显增加。记者采 访发现，产业客户和境外客户成为当前市场重要增长点，各家期货公司苦练内功，提升自身服务能力。 与此同时，期货行业整体业绩也有所回暖。 ...

宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 南华原木产业风险管理日报 2025年10月21日 ——趋势向上，月差继续走弱 原木价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 780-830 | 16.28% | 67.4% | source： 南华研究 原木套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 原木进口量偏高库存高位，担心价格 下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空原木期货来锁定利润， 弥补企业的生产成本 | lg2511 卖出 | | 25% | 820-830 | | 采购管 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订单情 | 空 | 为了防止原 ...

南华期货工业硅&多晶硅企业风险管理日报 2025年10月21日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 支撑位：8000 | 29.9% | 82.3% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 硅产业企业风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | | 套保比例 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售工业硅 未来有生产工业硅的计划，担心销售工业硅时价格下跌导致销售利 | 为防止价格下跌 | 期货 | 依据生产计划卖出对应期货合约 | 40% | 根据销售利润 | | | | 导致销售利润减 | | | | | | | | 少，企业需在采 | | | | | | | 润 ...

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/10/21 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 张泫：Z0022723 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 source： 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 | | 单位 | 2025-10-21 | 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-14 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 吨 | 151396 | 151396 | 290165 | 0 | -138769 | | 热卷 | 吨 | 143657 | 146032 | 59778 | -2375 | 83879 | | 铁矿石 | 手 | 1000 | 1200 | 800 | -200 | 200 | | 焦煤 | 手 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 0 | 0 | | 焦炭 | 手 | 2050 | 2050 | 2190 | 0 | -140 | | 硅铁 | 张 | 11400 | 12103 | 13665 | -703 | -2265 | | 硅锰 | 张 | 46638 | 47636 ...

10月17日，铜仁市委副书记、市长穆嵘坤率市发改、工信、文旅等部门及重点企业负责人莅临东海期货调研座谈。东海 证券党委书记、董事长，东海期货董事长王文卓，东海期货党总支书记、总经理陈太康等公司领导出席交流。双方围绕 金融服务实体经济、助力区域高质量发展等议题进行深入探讨，并在推动产业与金融深度融合等方面凝聚合作共识，为 下一步深化协同联动、促进务实合作开启了新篇章。 王文卓强调，东海致力于成为"不只是服务的提供者，更是价值的共创者"，推动金融资源与区域战略同频共振。 围绕下一阶段合作，陈太康提出两项具体路径：一是推动风险管理服务从"单个企业"向"整个产业"升级，从"单一工 具"向"综合生态"拓展，着力打造具有示范意义的"铜仁模式"；二是以交割库建设为契机，加快推动区域性农产品集散中 心建设，提升铜仁在禽蛋等优势产业领域的定价影响力与集群竞争力。 发挥集团综合优势，助力区域发展能级提升 随后，东海证券党委书记、董事长，东海期货董事长王文卓在讲话中表示，东海期货在服务铜仁乡村振兴与产业发展方 面取得的成效，离不开铜仁市政府及社会各界的支持与信任。作为母公司，东海证券在债券融资、上市辅导、并购重组 等方面经验丰富， ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai International Financial Center has achieved significant development over the past 30 years, but still faces challenges in international competitiveness and market internationalization [1][3][5] Group 1: Achievements - Shanghai has built the most diverse financial market globally, with 1,782 licensed institutions, including a 31% foreign capital share [3] - Key financial indicators place Shanghai among the top globally, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange ranking third in total market capitalization and fifth in trading volume by the end of 2024 [3] - The city has established a comprehensive financial ecosystem covering various sectors, including banking, securities, insurance, and fintech [3] Group 2: Challenges - The international competitiveness of Shanghai's financial center is lacking, with insufficient attraction of high-level financial institutions and weak influence in pricing of mainstream financial products [5] - The degree of financial internationalization is low, with foreign ownership in the A-share market at only 2.7% and foreign investment in the bond market below 3% by the end of 2024 [5] - The bond market structure is imbalanced, with nearly 90% of bonds rated AAA, leading to a lack of risk differentiation in pricing [5] - There is a gap in high-quality supporting services and fintech leadership, with legal and professional service capabilities not meeting actual demand [5] Group 3: Future Goals - The long-term goal is to establish a top-tier global financial center by the middle of this century, comparable to New York and London, with a focus on RMB dominance [7] - The medium-term goal (5-10 years) aims to enhance the financial center's capabilities and solidify its position as a global asset allocation and risk management hub [7] - Key tasks during the 14th Five-Year Plan include improving market quality, increasing international influence, and enhancing the role of RMB in global financing [7] Group 4: Implementation Strategies - Six major pathways and 50 specific measures have been proposed to achieve the outlined goals, including deepening financial reforms and enhancing institutional openness [8][9] - Establishing an offshore financial system centered on RMB to facilitate cross-border capital flow and support Chinese enterprises' overseas operations [9] - Promoting fintech development by leveraging Shanghai's data resources to create platforms that empower both financial services and regulatory oversight [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter due to postponed plant maintenance, the return of long - shut small plants, and import deals from Europe to China. However, downstream demand is weak, with a high probability of the peak season being uneventful this year, resulting in a persistent inventory build - up pattern. The price of domestic pure benzene is likely to fall rather than rise, which slows down imports. In early October, the export volume of Korean pure benzene to China decreased significantly, and some imported pure benzene faced difficulties in unloading, temporarily tightening the spot liquidity of pure benzene [3]. - For styrene, the supply is tightening as more plants are under maintenance and the return of Jingbo's styrene plant is uncertain. It is expected that the new production capacity will increase the supply in mid - to late October. The balance sheet shows that styrene will maintain a tight balance from October to November (if Jingbo's plant stops for a long time, styrene will enter a destocking pattern in the fourth quarter). However, high inventory and the drag from upstream pure benzene limit the upward price movement. In the short term, the market is affected by macro factors and follows the fluctuation of crude oil prices. It is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of pure benzene is predicted to be 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton, and that of styrene is 6400 - 7000 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile in the past three years is 85.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short styrene futures (EB2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at 6600 - 6700 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (EB2511C6700) with a 50% ratio at 30 - 40 yuan to collect premiums and reduce capital costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy styrene futures (EB2511) with a 50% ratio at 6400 - 6450 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (EB2511P6500) with a 75% ratio at 90 - 110 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Pure Benzene**: The supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, while demand is weak, leading to a difficult - to - change inventory build - up pattern. Import is slowing down, and short - term spot liquidity is tightening [3]. - **Styrene**: Supply is tightening in the short term, and the market will maintain a tight balance from October to November. High inventory and the drag from pure benzene limit the upward price movement [3]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - In early October, the export volume of Korean pure benzene to China was 47,000 tons, a significant decrease. Some imported pure benzene faced unloading difficulties, temporarily tightening the spot liquidity of pure benzene [4]. - Several styrene plants, including Jingbo Sida Rui (670,000 tons/year), Anhui Jiaxi (350,000 tons/year), and Lianyungang Petrochemical (600,000 tons/year), are under maintenance, making it difficult to further compress the price spread between pure benzene and styrene [4]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Due to weak macro - sentiment and supply - demand fundamentals, the price of crude oil has been falling recently, weakening cost support and causing a collective decline in oil - related chemical products [7]. - As of October 13, 2025, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 196,500 tons, a decrease of 5400 tons from the previous period, but the high inventory is still difficult to reduce [7]. - On October 10, 2025, the US President announced a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting from November 1 and export controls on all key software, putting pressure on terminal export demand [7]. - Two large - scale styrene plants in Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical are planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter [7]. 3.5 Basis and Price Spread Analysis - **Basis**: The daily changes in the basis of pure benzene and styrene are presented, showing different trends for various contracts [8]. - **Price Spread**: The price spreads within the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain, including spot - futures spreads and cross - product spreads, are analyzed, with most spreads showing downward trends [9]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Price - **Pure Benzene**: The prices of pure benzene in different markets and contracts are provided, along with production margins. The production margin of pure benzene increased by 19 yuan/ton to 366 yuan/ton on October 17, 2025 [10]. - **Styrene**: The prices of styrene in different regions and contracts are given, as well as its profits. The non - integrated profit of styrene decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 612.2397 yuan/ton on October 17, 2025 [11]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices and profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and EPS are also presented [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - For copper, maintain a callback - buying strategy considering the continuous tightness of the ore end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually establishing virtual inventory [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay. Keep an eye on terminal demand, and hold long - term positions on dips [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals and the opening of the export window affected by export profits, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider gradually taking profits on domestic - foreign positive spreads and pay attention to the opportunity of reverse spreads in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak. Although the geopolitical risks in Indonesia have eased, there are still disturbances at the mining end and the policy end has the motivation to support prices [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak overall. There is increased uncertainty in trade frictions in the short - term macro - aspect, and the Indonesian policy end has a certain motivation to support prices [9]. - For lead, the lead price is expected to maintain a high - level shock between 17,000 and 17,400 next week, and the subsequent destocking strength in October remains to be verified, with a weak outlook [12]. - For tin, follow the macro - sentiment in the short - term and it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, hold positions on dips close to the cost line [15]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are in balance in Q4 with few potential contradictions in the short - term. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom with the seasonal marginal cost as the anchor [16]. - For lithium carbonate, in the context of a strong "anti - involution" commodity sentiment, the price has high elasticity after the supply - side disturbance speculation is realized, and strong downward support before the disturbance is realized [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the spot premium of SHFE copper changed from 45 to 70, the scrap - refined copper spread decreased from 3197 to 2362, and the LME inventory decreased from 139,400 to 137,450 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Affected by the Trump's tariff announcement, LME copper dropped 4.5% on Friday. The impact of this tariff conflict is estimated to be lower than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The smelting end has over - expected production cuts and moderate inventory accumulation this week. After the sharp decline in copper price on Friday, the volume of pricing and receiving goods is expected to increase significantly next week, driving inventory destocking [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased from 20,990 to 20,950, and the LME inventory decreased from 508,825 to 495,325 [1]. - **Market Situation**: The operating production capacity is increasing slightly. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has rebounded significantly in September. Due to the holiday effect, there is seasonal inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots and bars. The global economic recovery is showing signs, but the Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain, leading to a certain divergence in the internal and external market trends [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased from 22,300 to 21,920, and the LME inventory decreased from 37,950 to 38,300 [2]. - **Market Situation**: This week, the domestic zinc price fluctuated and rose due to the US shutdown sentiment and the opening of the export window. The domestic TC decreased further, and the imported TC increased. The domestic zinc ore is expected to be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas zinc ore increased significantly in the second quarter. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, and the European demand is average overseas [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the SHFE nickel spot price changed slightly, and the LME inventory decreased from 6894 to 6222 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak overall, and the domestic inventory remains stable while the overseas inventory is continuously accumulating. The Indonesian mining end has continuous disturbances, and the policy end has the motivation to support prices [3][4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils remained unchanged at 13,550, and the price of 304 hot - rolled coils decreased from 12,700 to 12,450 [9]. - **Market Situation**: The steel mills' production schedule in October increased slightly compared to the previous month. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. There is inventory accumulation during the holiday in Xijiao and Foshan, and the warehouse receipts remain stable [9]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the spot premium of lead changed from - 195 to - 210, and the LME inventory decreased from 237,000 to 252,000 [12]. - **Market Situation**: The lead price rose this week due to macro - factors. The supply of recycled lead is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October. The demand may weaken after the National Day holiday. The refined - scrap price difference is - 25, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 100,000 tons. The lead price is expected to maintain a high - level shock next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the tin position decreased from 71,221 to 63,683, and the LME inventory remained at 2575 [15]. - **Market Situation**: The tin price moved up this week due to macro - factors. The domestic smelting plants have reduced production, and the overseas supply is expected to recover in October. The demand for solder has a slight recovery during the peak season. The domestic fundamentals are short - term in a situation of weak supply and demand [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the 421 Yunnan basis changed from - 185 to - 105, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 50,281 to 50,291 [16]. - **Market Situation**: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang resumed production this week. The start - up in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, and there is a strong expectation of production reduction in November. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in balance in Q4, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price remained at 73,000, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 42,669 to 30,456 [16]. - **Market Situation**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated this week. The overseas mines have a strong willingness to support prices, and the salt plants have a low acceptance of high - priced lithium ore. The pre - holiday inventory - building is coming to an end, and the spot basis is weakening. The supply is in an over - capacity cycle, but there is inventory destocking due to seasonal factors and demand growth [16].

Group 1 - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. submitted its Hong Kong IPO prospectus on April 17, 2025, which became invalid after six months on October 17, 2025, with CITIC Securities as the sole sponsor [1] - Nanhua Futures is headquartered in China and focuses on providing financial services related to futures and derivatives, offering comprehensive and customized risk management services to industrial clients, financial institutions, and individual investors [2] - The company aims to provide diversified wealth management services to both domestic and overseas investors, and it was the first futures company to be listed on the A-share market in China in August 2019, with a total market capitalization exceeding 12.5 billion RMB since its listing [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. has seen its Hong Kong IPO application expire after six months, with CITIC Securities serving as the sole sponsor during the application process [1] Company Overview - Nanhua Futures is a financial services provider headquartered in China, focusing on futures and derivatives [2] - The company offers comprehensive and customized derivative and risk management services to industrial clients, financial institutions, and individual investors [2] - Nanhua Futures aims to provide more diversified wealth management services for both domestic and overseas investors [2] - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August 2019, becoming the first futures company to be listed in A-shares, with a total market capitalization exceeding 12.5 billion RMB since its listing [2]