Dollar Outlook - Rabobank认为，未来几周美元对疲软数据将更加敏感[1] - 市场对美元的空头头寸已减少，美元走势趋于平衡[3][4] - 美元年初至今表现不佳，但在下半年表现良好[3] Key Data to Watch - 劳动力数据和CPI数据是关注重点，但十月份的数据可能受到shutdown的影响[2] - ADP数据对美元的影响显示市场不再过度做空美元[3] Currency Dynamics - 挪威克朗在数据公布后表现最佳[4] - 日元面临日本新任财务大臣的口头干预风险，日本央行可能在12月加息[5][6] - 市场对日元汇率0.55保持警惕[7] Global Factors - 美元走向不明朗，多种货币（欧元、日元、英镑）的故事都在发生，但美元是共同因素[5][7]

Fed Policy & Rate Cuts - The market is closely watching the Fed's next move regarding rate cuts, particularly the timing and magnitude, and whether political influence is a factor [1] - The market currently prices in an 85% expectation of a rate cut, but a strong payroll report (e.g., 300,000-400,000 jobs) with positive revisions could cause the Fed and the market to reconsider [5] - Labor data is crucial for justifying potential rate cuts, as highlighted by Waller, Bowman, and Powell [2] - The Fed might decide to phase out quantitative tightening (QT) at the next meeting, especially concerning mortgage-backed securities (MBS), to avoid upward pressure on mortgage rates while cutting rates [7] Inflation & Economic Data - The super core inflation rate has accelerated from approximately 0.06% in April to 39% currently [3] - Next week's data releases are critical to determine if full employment has taken precedence over stable pricing in the Fed's dual mandate [1] Fed Balance Sheet - The Fed is still allowing $35 billion of mortgage-backed securities to roll off each month, contributing to upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates [5] - Quantitative tightening, while a passive tightening measure, has likely kept mortgage rates higher than they otherwise would be [8]

BLS Commissioner Controversy - The dismissal of the BLS commissioner was unexpected, as there's typically bipartisan agreement to maintain confidence in the data's impartiality [1][2] - Concerns arose that the commissioner was allegedly leading a conspiracy to manipulate data to harm President Trump's campaign and policies [3] - The commissioner's direct influence on data collection and processing is limited, as they don't see the numbers until finalized [4] Data Revision and Economic Signals - Revisions to economic data, including those in the latest report, are normal occurrences [7] - Significant revisions could indicate an economic turning point, such as rapid growth slowing or the onset of sluggishness [8] - Improvements in BLS data estimation have been steady over the past 30 years, suggesting the agency is not performing poorly [9][10] Potential Reasons for Revisions - One possible explanation for large revisions is the depletion of COVID-era funding for state and local education [11] - It's important to investigate the underlying reasons for revisions rather than immediately attributing them to conspiracy [11] Data Transparency and Reliability - The president aims to have his own people in place to ensure data transparency and reliability [14] - While individual analysts handle specific economic segments, assistant commissioners sum up the data, making manipulation difficult due to oversight [15] - Wholesale changes to the data team could be problematic, as finding qualified replacements is challenging [15][16] Improving Data Collection Methods - Congress and the White House should collaborate to analyze and modernize data collection methods [16]