People fleeing calamity have a right to seek safety—but that does not mean access to a rich country’s labour market https://t.co/GIBefQVLjX ...

🇺🇸 US UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS SURPASSED JOB OPENINGS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 4.5 YEARS. THIS SHOWS LABOUR MARKET IS TOO WEAK.SEPTEMBER RATE CUT IS CONFIRMED 🚀 https://t.co/MXFSCHfh8f ...

The air is slowly coming out of Britain’s labour market. But flaws in official statistics make the market hard to gauge with any precision https://t.co/nkhyFM0NR4 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese labor market** and its dynamics, focusing on hiring trends across various sectors including **services**, **manufacturing**, and **construction** [2][3][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Softer Labor Market**: The UBS Evidence Lab Labour Market Business Survey indicates a slight softening in hiring momentum in Q2 2025, with 41% of firms increasing hiring YoY and 37% QoQ, down from 43% and 42% in Q1 2025 respectively [2][7]. 2. **Sector-Specific Trends**: - **Service Sector**: Hiring intentions and salary growth have weakened, with 39% of service firms reporting increased hiring YoY, down from 46% in Q1 [12][22]. - **Manufacturing Sector**: Continued challenges from weak profitability and low capacity utilization have led to a decline in hiring momentum [12][22]. - **Construction Sector**: Surprisingly, hiring in the construction sector has picked up, likely due to robust infrastructure investment [12][22]. - **Exporters**: 41% of surveyed exporters reported increased hiring YoY, outperforming the average of 35% for all manufacturing firms, attributed to resilient export growth [13][17]. 3. **Policy Support**: 75% of firms received some form of policy support in Q2, with government subsidies for hiring college graduates being the most common. This support is particularly strong for exporters, with 91% receiving assistance [4][17]. 4. **Mixed Macro Picture**: The official unemployment rate decreased to 5.0% in Q2 from 5.3% in Q1, but other indicators suggest ongoing pressures in the labor market, including a decline in household income growth and cautious consumer sentiment [5][25]. 5. **Future Outlook**: Expectations for Q3 indicate a continuation of the softening trend in the labor market, particularly in the service sector, while manufacturing and construction sectors show slightly more optimism [22][31]. Additional Important Insights - **Wage Growth**: There is a notable moderation in wage growth, with fewer firms reporting increases in monthly salaries compared to previous quarters [7][10]. - **Consumer Confidence**: Despite stable consumption growth, consumer confidence remains below pre-COVID levels, indicating a cautious outlook among households [30][40]. - **Government Measures**: The government has introduced additional measures to stabilize the labor market, including increased unemployment insurance refunds and subsidies for hiring young people [17][31]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and outlook of the Chinese labor market, sector-specific trends, and the impact of government policies.

Inflation & Monetary Policy - The Bank of England is likely to hold its current policy through the rest of 2024 into 2026, and a November rate cut is less likely [1] - Rising inflation presents a challenge for the Bank of England, which already anticipates a peak in September [2] - Supply-side factors, including school holiday timing, contribute to inflation volatility, but the Bank of England may focus more on the labor market and wage trajectory [3][4] - High prices in grocery stores, such as jam and marmalade, may fuel wage demands, a concern for the Bank of England regarding persistent inflation [5][6] - The data does not suggest an immediate end to cautious monetary policy from the Bank of England [7] Labor Market & Wages - The labor market appears to be weakening, potentially reducing pressure from wage demands [4][6] - Firms anticipate lower pay settlements next year [6] - The labor market's condition could influence wage negotiations and potentially mitigate inflation risks [4] Services Inflation - Services inflation remains sticky, but the focus is shifting towards core services, excluding factors like assessed taxes [8][9] - Core services inflation may present a less severe picture than overall services inflation [8][9]

Labour Market Perspective - The Conservatives' view of Britain's labour market has changed [1] Source - Source of information is Matthew Holehouse, British political correspondent [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of US tariffs and geopolitical risks on global trade and the economy, particularly focusing on the US, EU, Japan, and emerging markets like Vietnam and Indonesia [2][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Impact**: New higher tariff rates ranging from 10% to 41% took effect on August 7, 2025, which are expected to negatively affect global trade and the US economy in the upcoming months [3][9]. - **Labour Market Concerns**: There are signs of weakness in the US labor market, with payroll data showing negative revisions and weak job growth. This indicates potential cost pressures and inflationary effects due to tariffs [4][37]. - **Global GDP Trends**: Q2 GDP growth has shown a reversal from Q1 trends, with the US experiencing a drop in imports that lifted growth, while other economies faced declines in exports [5][24]. - **Inflation Dynamics**: Outside the US, inflation appears to be moderating, with central banks in Europe, Asia, and Latin America cutting rates, which may buffer against tariff-related uncertainties [6][86]. - **Market Resilience**: Despite the choppy economic data and tariff news, equity markets have reached new highs, indicating a broader resilience in the global economy [7][10]. Additional Important Points - **Trade Deals**: The US has signed numerous bilateral trade deals with countries including Japan, Indonesia, and the EU, which have provided some clarity on trade policies, although higher tariffs are expected to lead to lower growth and higher inflation in the US [9][120]. - **Consumer Behavior**: US consumer spending remains robust despite lower consumer confidence, while retail sales in Europe are primarily driven by Spain [50][55]. - **Trade Deficit Trends**: The US trade deficit narrowed in June as imports fell, particularly for consumer goods and industrial supplies, indicating a complex trade environment influenced by tariffs [62][63]. - **Chinese Trade Adjustments**: Chinese exports are shifting towards ASEAN, EU, and the UK markets, while imports from the US and EU are decreasing due to tariffs [147][151]. - **Electronics Demand**: Taiwan's electronics export orders have been declining, indicating demand pressure in the electronics sector, although chip exports are still growing [161][163]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights the intricate dynamics of global trade influenced by US tariffs, labor market conditions, and inflation trends. The resilience of markets amidst these challenges suggests a complex but cautiously optimistic outlook for the global economy moving forward.

Industry Landscape - The gig economy has multiple participants, with Deliveroo representing Britain's flexible labor market [1] - Britain's hiring and firing regulations are among the most lenient within the OECD [1] Political Considerations - The Labour Party views the flexibility of Britain's labor market as a vulnerability [1]

Government Policy & Labor Market - The British government aims to regulate and improve the productivity of the labor market, especially the gig economy [1] - The report questions whether Labour voters are willing to sacrifice the convenience of gig economy services like Deliveroo for the government's vision [1] Industry Implication - The analysis focuses on the potential impact of increased regulation on gig economy services [1] - The report highlights the trade-off between regulation and consumer convenience in the gig economy [1]

Government Policy & Labor Market - The British government aims to regulate and improve the productivity of the labor market, specifically the gig economy [1] - The government's vision may require changes in consumer behavior, such as potentially impacting the convenience of services like Deliveroo [1] Consumer Behavior & Economic Impact - The willingness of Labour voters to accept potential trade-offs between convenience (e.g, Friday night Deliveroo) and the government's policy goals is a key question [1]