Summary of Conference Call on China Property Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Property Sector**, highlighting the current market conditions and future expectations for developers and policies affecting the industry. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - The sector is expected to trade within a range due to sluggish fundamentals and potential policy support, with a current P/E ratio of **8.5x FY27E**, aligning with historical averages [1][2] - National inventory is projected to remain high at **24 months** through **2027**, but Tier 1 and top 15 cities may see inventory decrease to **15 months** by **2026/27** [3][4] - New home sales volume/value is forecasted to decline by **5%-7%** and **8%-10%** in **2025**, with further mid-single-digit declines in **2026** [3][4] Developer Performance - Top developers are focusing on major cities, acquiring land only in the **10-20 largest cities** since **2024**, despite generating sales from **60 cities** [4][5] - Developers with younger land banks (acquired after **2022**) tend to have higher returns on invested capital (ROIC), with **Binjiang, C&D, and COLI** having the youngest land banks [5][6] - The earnings estimates for the sector have been trimmed by single-digit percentages, reflecting minor changes in contracted sales forecasts [5][6] Policy Outlook - Policymakers are expected to emphasize quality housing in the upcoming **15th Five-Year Plan**, with no major new policy support anticipated until **March 2026** [2][24] - Potential policy tools include tax deductibility for mortgage interest, lower transaction taxes, direct subsidies to home buyers, and relaxation of urban redevelopment restrictions [2][29] - The **Fourth Plenary Session** is expected to provide preliminary guidelines for property policy over the next five years, focusing on balancing growth and risk control [24][27] Risks and Challenges - Secondary home prices have declined by **1.6% MoM** in September, nearing the steepest decline observed in the second half of **2023** [21][22] - Real estate investment fell by **20% YoY** in September, worsening from a **10%** decline in the first half of **2025** [22][23] - Home prices are expected to face significant downside risks, with estimates suggesting a potential **20%** correction for entry-level buyers in Tier 1 cities [56][58] Developer Ratings and Forecasts - Price objectives for several developers have been revised, with **Binjiang** seeing an increase from **12.8 billion** to **13.5 billion**, while **Poly** was cut from **8.0 billion** to **7.5 billion** [8][9] - The contracted sales forecast for key developers has been adjusted, with **CMSK** seeing an increase due to better-than-expected performance, while **COLI** and **Poly** have been trimmed due to deteriorating market conditions [76][79] Conclusion - The China Property Sector is currently facing a challenging environment with sluggish sales, high inventory levels, and declining prices. However, top developers are strategically focusing on major cities and improving their land bank quality, which may position them better for future recovery as policy support is anticipated in the coming years.