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Bonhoeffer Capital Management Q2 2025 Letter
Seeking Alphaยท 2025-09-11 00:00
Core Insights - The Bonhoeffer Fund focused on selling slower-growth firms and acquiring durable, faster-growing companies in depressed sectors, aligning with long-term growth themes such as consolidation and financial compounders [7][11] - The fund achieved a net gain of 8.7% in Q2 2025, underperforming compared to the MSCI World ex-US and S&P 500, which returned 12.1% and 10.8% respectively [9][10] - The portfolio's projected earnings/free cash flow growth is approximately 16%, with a weighted average earnings/free cash flow yield of 12.5% [10][11] Investment Themes - **Distribution (49% of Portfolio)**: The fund holds high-velocity distributors in various markets, focusing on car dealerships and building product distributors, which have shown a quarterly performance of 6% [14] - **Real Estate/Construction/Finance (58% of Portfolio)**: Investments in construction firms are expected to benefit from government infrastructure programs and affordable housing financing, with banks showing sustainable ROEs and EPS growth rates above 15% [18][19] - **Public Leverage Buyouts (31% of Portfolio)**: The strategy involves growth through acquisitions, with firms like Builders First Source (BFS) utilizing local economies of scale to generate high returns [22][24] - **Compound Mispricings (15% of Portfolio)**: Investments in Korean preferred stocks and Asian real estate are characterized by governance improvements and liquidity, with Vistry facing challenges but still focusing on affordable housing [31][32] - **Telecom/Transaction Processing (3% of Portfolio)**: Companies like Millicom are positioned to benefit from reduced competition and favorable market conditions, with a focus on cost-cutting and dividend yields [33][35] - **Consumer Products (3% of Portfolio)**: Defensive consumer product firms are expected to perform well, with Academy Sports facing challenges but retaining potential for recovery [36][37] Financial Metrics - The Bonhoeffer Fund's portfolio has an average EV/EBITDA of 3.2 and a growth rate of 16% [9][10] - Arrow Electronics is projected to have a 27% EPS growth rate through 2029, with a future share price estimated at $39 [17] - Builders First Source (BFS) is expected to see a recovery in share price with a projected value of around $505 per share based on a 32% IRR [30]