Leveraged Loan Issuance

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Slowdown in Leveraged Loan Issuance to Hurt Moody's Q2 Earnings
ZACKS· 2025-07-22 16:35
Core Insights - Moody's (MCO) is set to announce its second-quarter 2025 results on July 23, with expectations of limited revenue growth in its Corporate Finance line, which is the largest revenue contributor within the Moody's Investors Service (MIS) division [1][10] - Global bond issuance activity showed some health, but there was a significant slowdown in leveraged loan issuance compared to the previous year [1][2] Corporate Finance - The consensus estimate for Corporate Finance revenues is $492 million, indicating a 6.3% decline year-over-year [2][10] - Weaker leveraged loan issuance, attributed to lower repricing activity and increased corporate debt spreads, has notably impacted revenue [2][10] Financial Institutions and Other Segments - The Financial Institutions business line is expected to generate revenues of $198 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.5% [3] - Public, Project, and Infrastructure Finance revenues are estimated at $164 million, suggesting a 6.5% increase [3] Structured Finance - Quarterly issuance volumes for collateral debt obligations were strong, but commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and asset-backed securities (ABS) saw a decline, leading to a projected 6.1% drop in Structured Finance revenues to $123 million [4][10] Overall MIS Division Performance - The consensus estimate for total MIS division revenues is $1.03 billion, indicating a 3.1% year-over-year decline [5] Moody's Analytics Division - Revenues from the Moody's Analytics (MA) division are projected to rise to $876 million, reflecting an 8.7% increase year-over-year due to rising demand and inorganic growth strategies [6][7] Key Developments - Moody's fully acquired ICR Chile in June, enhancing its presence in Latin America's credit markets, although the deal is not expected to materially impact 2025 financial results [8][9] Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $3.42, representing a 4.3% increase from the previous year, while sales are expected to reach $1.85 billion, a 1.8% rise year-over-year [13]