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Is Berkshire Overvalued? The Rare Inverse Play for Those Betting Against the Oracle
The Motley Fool· 2026-02-16 20:16
Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway, traditionally viewed as a strong long-term investment, has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past year, raising concerns among investors about its future performance and the implications of Warren Buffett's retirement [4][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Berkshire Hathaway has delivered an average annual return of nearly 20% since Warren Buffett took control in 1965, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's average annual return of 10% [1]. - The company's stock has risen by less than 4% over the past 12 months, while the S&P 500 has advanced nearly 12% [4]. - Berkshire's market capitalization stands at approximately $1.08 trillion, with a portfolio worth $320 billion, accounting for 30% of its market cap [2]. Group 2: Strategic Decisions - The company paused its buybacks for five consecutive quarters, indicating that its shares may be overvalued [4]. - Buffett's decision to sell many of Berkshire's top stocks has resulted in a record cash position of $382 billion by the end of Q3 2025, suggesting concerns about the overheated S&P 500 [5]. - Buffett's retirement at the end of 2025 has led to uncertainty among investors, prompting some to consider selling their shares [5]. Group 3: Investment Products - Direxion offers an inverse ETF, the Daily BRKB Bear 1X Shares, which allows investors to bet against Berkshire Hathaway's stock [7]. - This ETF uses total return swaps to replicate a short position against Berkshire, meaning it rises when Berkshire's stock declines and falls when Berkshire's stock rises [8]. - The strategy is highly leveraged and carries risks, with a high expense ratio of 0.97% and daily resets of returns [9].