In 2018, I pointed out when Bitcoin was about 10,000, it was going to drop a zero. I was 70% right, 30% wrong cuz it went down to 3,000. I'm saying the same thing now.I think it can go back to 10,000. The Bloomberg intelligence just predicted this about Bitcoin. >> And it's classic peak bull market stuff.Remember scene in 1999. that Bitcoin's price is headed to 10K while City Bank $1.7% trillion heavily respected City Bank is arguing the opposite. >> Going forward, the liquidity squeeze for the Bitcoin weak ...

📊MARKETS: Bitcoin Crumbles Below $100K, Crypto Stocks Eviscerated as Liquidity Crunch Hammers Risk Markets@sndr_krisztian reports.https://t.co/97OUiiOveF ...

Company Overview - Marathon Digital transferred approximately 2,348 BTC valued at $236 million to various exchanges, raising concerns of a potential miner-led selloff shortly after reporting strong Q3 2025 results [1][2] - The company reported revenues of $252.4 million and a net income of $123.1 million, reflecting a 92% increase in revenue year-over-year [2] Market Reaction - Following the transfer, Bitcoin briefly fell below $100K, hitting a low of $98K before rebounding to $101K, while Ethereum dropped to $3K and altcoins experienced declines [1] - The timing of the BTC transfer has confused investors, as such actions typically precede liquidation; however, some speculate that Marathon may be restructuring its treasury or preparing for over-the-counter deals [3] Industry Insights - Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, suggests that the Bitcoin correction may be nearing its end, noting a decline in both Bitcoin and USD liquidity since July [4] - Hayes indicates that the US Treasury's efforts to rebuild its cash balance post-debt ceiling deal have contributed to the liquidity drain, predicting a rebound in Bitcoin and other risk assets once the government shutdown concludes [5] - The Balance of Power (BoP) indicator shows increasing accumulation during recent price dips, suggesting stronger buying pressure near the $100,000 mark, which may position Bitcoin as a favorable investment if prices decline further [7]

Economic Performance - Argentina's economy experienced a slight monthly expansion in August [1] Political Context - The expansion is a positive development for President Milei before a critical midterm election [1] Liquidity - The expansion occurred despite a liquidity crunch [1]

Market Liquidity & Potential Risks - Reverse Repo (RRP) usage has collapsed by 99% from a peak of $22 trillion to $8-10 billion, signaling a potential liquidity crisis [2] - The belief that $7 trillion in Money Market Funds (MMFs) will flood into equities or crypto is false, as MMF capital flows into T-Bills, repos, or the Fed's RRP facility, draining liquidity from the real market [3] - US banks hold approximately $395 billion in unrealized losses, potentially pressuring balance sheets [4] - Insider selling has reached its largest amount in the last 2-3 years, coinciding with significant retail investor inflows, a potentially toxic mix often seen at cycle tops [7] Crypto Market Analysis - Large wallets have slowed selling since late September, and short-term holders already capitulated in August–September [4] - Bitcoin has never decoupled from stock-market liquidity; a repo-driven shock in equities could initially cause BTC to dip before benefiting from a post-crash liquidity wave [4] - Leveraged longs are at cycle highs, while liquidity is collapsing, mirroring the delusion seen before the 2022 crash [4] - A massive bearish divergence is forming on the weekly chart, similar to the divergence that preceded the end of the 2021 bull market [4] MicroStrategy (MSTR) Analysis - MicroStrategy raised its preferred-share yields from 10% to 1025% (up from 9% only weeks ago), indicating potential funding strain [6] - Constant share dilution has caused MSTR's mNAV premium to underperform BTC by approximately 25% in 6 months [6] - Without fresh inflows, MicroStrategy's structure risks becoming a closed-loop Ponzi flywheel, similar to Terra/Luna [6]

Core Insights - The effective federal funds rate rose unexpectedly to 4.09%, influenced by shrinking cash balances at foreign banks [2][3] - The increase in the fed funds rate is notable as it is the first uptick outside of a Federal Reserve rate move since 2023 [3] - Total bank reserves have decreased to $3 trillion, with foreign banking organizations (FBOs) holding about 38% of these reserves [5][6] Group 1: Federal Funds Rate Dynamics - The latest fed funds rate of 4.09% is one basis point higher than the previous rate of 4.08% following the Fed's interest rate cut [2] - The uptick in the fed funds rate comes amid concerns of a potential liquidity crunch as the quarter ends [3] - The effective fed funds rate typically hovers 8 basis points above the lower end of the Fed's target range [3] Group 2: Foreign Banking Organizations (FBOs) - FBO cash holdings have decreased to $1.176 trillion, down $28 billion from the previous week, and have declined by $255 billion since August 20 [6] - FBOs are significant players in the fed funds market, borrowing at lower rates and earning interest on reserves at the Fed [7] - The decline in FBO reserves has contributed to tighter liquidity in the fed funds market, leading to reduced trading volume [8] Group 3: Banking System Reserves - Total bank reserves have fallen from $3.3 trillion to $3 trillion as of September 24 [5] - U.S. banks hold 57% of total reserves, while credit unions account for 5% [5] - The ongoing buildup in the U.S. Treasury's cash balance has further reduced reserves in the banking system [4]

Market Focus - Argentine authorities are scrutinizing investor activity in repo loans [1] - Repo loans have seen interest rates touch record highs [1] Financial Instruments - Repo loans are short-term financial instruments [1] Liquidity Concerns - A liquidity crunch is occurring at the nation's banks [1]

Financial Distress - Packaging company Brook + Whittle is in discussions with lenders to negotiate a deal [1] - The deal aims to provide the company with more time to resolve a liquidity crunch (流动性危机) [1]

Interest rates on Argentine peso notes are soaring across the board, piling pressure on banks amid a liquidity crunch caused by government efforts to defend the local currency https://t.co/UoH6j8hoqy ...