Core Viewpoint - The US Federal Reserve has officially ended its quantitative tightening (QT) program, signaling a potential shift towards liquidity expansion that may catalyze a new rally in the crypto market [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The US Federal Reserve injected $13.5 billion into the banking system through overnight repurchase agreements, marking the second-largest single-day liquidity operation since the COVID-19 crisis [2]. - The cessation of QT comes after the Fed withdrew approximately $2.4 trillion from the financial system since the tightening cycle began in June 2022 [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Market experts, including Fundstrat's Tom Lee, believe that the end of QT could be a turning point for the crypto market, with historical data suggesting a potential 17% rally in markets within three weeks following the last QT cessation [4]. - Improved liquidity is expected to support stronger performance in risk assets, particularly Bitcoin, with projections indicating a possible new all-time high by late January [4]. Group 3: Global Monetary Policy Considerations - Attention is also focused on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December, where rate cuts are anticipated [5]. - Concurrently, the probability of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike has risen to 81%, which has historically led to selloffs in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market [6].

Core Insights - The crypto market has underperformed compared to equities since April, with Bitcoin down over 15% in the last 30 days despite favorable macroeconomic conditions [1][5] - Bitcoin's year-to-date gain is only 4.2%, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's 16.76% gain [2] - Global liquidity is expanding, but capital is not flowing into the crypto sector, with crypto ETF inflows stalling [3][4] Market Performance - The S&P 500 has maintained a 1.66% gain in the last 30 days, while the crypto market has shed over $500 billion [1][6] - Bitcoin is currently around $104,000, Ethereum at $3,500, and both BNB and SOL have dropped over 20% [6] - The GMCI-30 index dropped 12% last week, with significant losses across various sectors, particularly Gaming (-21%) and Layer 2 solutions (-19%) [6] Liquidity and Market Structure - Despite an increase in the Federal Reserve's M2 Money Supply by over $2 trillion, reaching over $22 trillion, the crypto sector has not benefited from this liquidity [3] - The current market structure in crypto appears healthy, with leverage flushed out and positioning clean, but a resurgence in ETF or digital asset treasury flows is necessary for renewed liquidity [4] - Central banks are cutting rates into relative strength, indicating that the crypto bull run may not be over despite current challenges [8]