分组1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged in January 2026, with some analysts predicting four rate cuts totaling 100 basis points throughout the year [1] - Companies are currently in a layoff mode, with the Dallas Fed manufacturing report indicating ongoing job cuts to control costs, which may lead to a faster-than-expected rise in the unemployment rate [1][4] - October 2023 recorded a significant number of layoffs, which will impact the unemployment rate as severance payments expire, potentially surprising Fed policymakers [1][4] 分组2 - The U.S. is experiencing a 15-year high in corporate bankruptcies, with notable large bankruptcies occurring, such as a $2.4 billion porta-potty company filing in New Jersey [5] - The Fed is closely monitoring the credit cycle, particularly the potential slowdown in bond issuance and sales, which could create concerns for monetary policy [6] - The housing market is showing signs of capitulation, with more sellers than buyers and declining prices in many U.S. cities, leading to increased application rejections and cancellations [7][8] 分组3 - The rising unemployment rate is expected to have a more significant impact on the housing market than falling mortgage rates, indicating affordability issues [9] - Corporate America has not faced significant issues with bond issuance, but there are concerns regarding leverage in the private debt space, which may lead to liquidity challenges [11][12] - Passive investing trends are providing support to the stock market, with automated buying patterns favoring large-cap stocks like Nvidia [14]