Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Lithium and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) - **Market Dynamics**: The lithium market is expected to experience a demand increase of approximately 10% through 2030, driven primarily by BESS and automotive sectors [2][3][4] Core Insights - **Demand Forecast**: - Global battery demand is upgraded to 11% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with BESS demand projected to grow by 4-37% [3] - BESS is expected to account for ~31% of global battery demand by 2030, up from ~20% today [3] - In China, BESS demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 27% from 2027 to 2030 [3] - The US market sees BESS as a solution for electricity supply-demand imbalances, supported by government subsidies and short lead times [3] - **Supply Response**: - Global lithium supply is expected to increase by 4-8% through 2030, with significant contributions from China, Australia, and Nigeria [4] - The market is currently in a deficit, with declining inventories indicating strong demand [4][58][59] - **Price Projections**: - Price assumptions for lithium have been increased by up to 150%, with spodumene prices expected to peak at $2,850/t and lithium carbonate at $24,375/t by 2027 [2][8] - The long-term price forecast remains stable at $18,000/t for lithium carbonate [8] Potential Risks - **Cost Implications**: - Higher lithium prices could increase EV costs by $400-800 per vehicle, but historical demand trends suggest sustainability at higher price levels [5] - For energy storage systems, lithium constitutes 24% of the overall cost, meaning a 30% increase in lithium prices would only translate to a 7% increase in total costs [5] Additional Insights - **Inventory Trends**: - Li2CO3 inventories in China have fallen significantly, indicating robust demand for EVs, with inventory months declining to below one month [58][59] - Current drawdown rates for Li2CO3 are annualizing over 120ktpa, reflecting strong market conditions [59] - **Global BESS Project Pipeline**: - The global BESS project pipeline from 2025 to 2030 is projected to exceed 1.8TWh across various development stages [65][70] Conclusion - The lithium market is poised for significant growth driven by BESS and automotive demand, with supply expected to catch up in the long term. Price increases are anticipated, but the market dynamics suggest that demand will remain robust despite potential cost pressures on end products.