26 August 2025 | 3:07AM HKT Ganfeng Lithium (1772.HK) Earnings Review: 1H25 below expectation; cautious on lithium pricing; maintain H/A at Neutral/Sell | 1772.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$28.00 | Price: HK$30.98 | Downside: 9.6% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002460.SZ | 12m Price Target: Rmb30.50 | Price: Rmb39.26 | Downside: 22.3% | Ganfeng reported a 1H25 net loss of Rmb536mn, or loss per share at Rmb0.266/sh, versus net loss of Rmb759mn in 1H24. Excluding one-off items, mostly on fair value loss, disposal ...

Core Viewpoint - Albemarle Corp. is a leading global player in lithium, bromine, and catalysts, with a focus on vertically integrated lithium operations. The company's stock has experienced a significant decline of over 80% from its all-time high (ATH) since a multi-year selloff began in 2022, primarily due to depressed lithium prices [1]. Company Overview - Albemarle Corp. specializes in lithium, bromine, and catalysts, positioning itself as a global leader in these sectors [1]. - The company has vertically integrated lithium operations, which may provide a competitive advantage in the market [1]. Market Performance - The stock of Albemarle Corp. has seen a decline of more than 80% from its ATH, indicating a challenging market environment [1]. - The selloff that began in 2022 has been attributed to falling lithium prices, which have impacted the company's stock performance [1].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company achieved the highest first quarter lithium sales volumes in its history, with a 20% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle market in China and Europe [6][8] - Average realized prices for lithium in Q2 2025 are expected to be lower than in Q1 due to recent price declines [7][59] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Lithium sales volumes increased significantly, while iodine prices reached record averages amid tight supply and steady demand, particularly for X-ray contrast media applications [6][8] - Specialty Plant Nutrition (SPN) sales volumes grew healthily, with an upward trend in prices due to strong demand for potassium chloride and supply disruptions [9] - Potassium business volumes were significantly lower compared to the same period last year as part of a strategy to prioritize high lithium content brines [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company maintains a view that global lithium demand will grow by 17% in 2025, with SQM's sales expected to grow by 15% year-on-year, although this forecast remains unchanged amid current market conditions [29][64] - The lithium market is currently oversupplied, with prices under pressure, particularly in China [71][90] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding lithium production capacity to 240,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate and 100,000 metric tons of lithium hydroxide [8] - Investment in operational efficiencies and capacity expansions is ongoing, with a commitment to sustainable high-quality growth [11] - The company is confident in its strategy and ability to generate cash flow despite current pricing pressures [17][88] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes the current low price environment is unsustainable and expects prices to improve in the future [88][90] - The company is well-prepared to take advantage of market recovery due to its strong position as a low-cost producer [88][90] - There is optimism regarding long-term demand growth, particularly in the electric vehicle sector [64][90] Other Important Information - The company is advancing its seawater pipeline construction to expand iodine production capacity [8] - The dividend policy established a distribution of 30% of net income for 2025, with no interim dividends planned for the first quarter [48] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will operating cash flow be breakeven or positive per metric ton in lithium in Q2? - Management indicated they are far from breakeven costs and expect to be significantly above that in Q2 [14][15] Question: How will lower lithium prices affect capital structure and funding for future projects? - Management stated that the company has a strong balance sheet and cash generation capacity from other business lines, which will not constrain future projects [16][18] Question: What is the status of the Codelco joint venture in Chile? - Management described the situation as "noise" due to election year discussions but confirmed that the transaction is progressing as planned [20][26] Question: Will SQM's lithium sales grow by 15% this year? - Management has not updated the annual volume forecast but expects similar or slightly lower volumes in Q2 compared to Q1 [29] Question: How is SQM handling pricing dynamics in China? - Management noted that pricing mechanisms with customers are confidential and cannot provide specifics [36] Question: What is the outlook for Mt. Holland production? - Management confirmed that Mt. Holland is cash positive and ramping up as planned, despite facing higher costs during the ramp-up phase [84][97] Question: What is the company's dividend policy? - The company will distribute 30% of its net income for 2025, with no interim dividends planned for the first quarter [48]