Local Delivery Consolidation
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DoorDash Can Outpace Uber On Free-Cash-Flow Growth: Analyst
Benzingaยท 2025-10-14 18:50
Core Viewpoint - DoorDash is expected to outperform Uber in free cash flow, driven by strong U.S. cash generation, international expansion led by Deliveroo, and the acquisition of SevenRooms, with anticipated double-digit growth in gross order value (GOV) and margins as uncertainty in the rideshare sector increases [1][7]. Company Positioning - DoorDash holds over 60% market share in the U.S. food delivery sector, showing consistent growth in its core restaurant business [2]. - The company is reinvesting strong free cash flow from U.S. restaurants into long-term initiatives, including new verticals and international expansion [3]. Acquisition Strategy - Recent acquisitions, particularly Deliveroo, are expanding DoorDash's addressable market, enhancing its presence in Western Europe and the Middle East [4]. - The analyst anticipates that DoorDash will reinvest profits to scale operations, focusing on customer acquisition and enhancing subscription services to increase order frequency [4]. Leadership and Market Dynamics - The appointment of Wolt's CEO, Miki Kuusi, at Deliveroo is expected to streamline integration and alleviate concerns regarding U.S. leadership involvement [5]. - The local delivery market is consolidating around a few global leaders, creating profit pools in major markets that can support better customer value and investment [5]. Growth Projections - DoorDash's GOV is projected to compound at approximately 17% annually from 2025 to 2030, with steady margin improvements and EBITDA growth of about 27% per year over the next five years [6]. - The analyst estimates that DoorDash's free cash flow will grow at around 30% over the next five years, compared to approximately 16% for Uber, suggesting a higher valuation multiple for DoorDash [7].