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The "Amazon of Latin America" Stock Could Triple Over the Next 10 Years
The Motley Fool· 2026-01-09 10:15
Core Insights - MercadoLibre is projected to potentially triple in value over the next decade, making it a strong investment opportunity for 2026 [1] - The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, achieving over 1,500% increase in revenue over the past seven years with at least 30% year-over-year growth for 27 consecutive quarters [2] Business Performance - MercadoLibre's e-commerce segment is thriving, with nearly 77 million active buyers, a 26% increase, and a 39% rise in items sold in Q3 [6] - The advertising revenue is accelerating, with growth rates of 41%, 50%, 59%, and 63% over the last four quarters, contributing positively to profit margins [7] Logistics and Efficiency - Despite concerns over profit impacts from lowering the free shipping threshold in Brazil, MercadoLibre is improving shipping efficiency, with shipping expenses per item sold dropping 8% quarter over quarter [8][9] - The company is utilizing robotics in warehouses and optimizing network utilization to reduce costs, which supports long-term growth strategies [9] Financial Services Growth - MercadoLibre's fintech services have over 72 million active monthly users, reflecting a 29% increase, and the company is expanding its offerings in credit and lending services [10] Revenue Potential - The company is expected to reach nearly $100 billion in annual revenue within a decade if it maintains low double-digit annual growth rates, indicating significant growth potential in an underpenetrated market [11] Valuation - MercadoLibre's market cap is approximately $110 billion, with a trailing-12-month cash from operations of about $7.7 billion, resulting in a valuation of around 14 times its operating cash flow, which is considered historically cheap [12] - Compared to Amazon, which trades at 20 times its cash from operations, MercadoLibre's faster growth and longer runway for expansion suggest it is undervalued [13] Future Growth Opportunities - The company is likely to explore new growth avenues, particularly in advertising, which has recently become a significant revenue source, indicating potential for further expansion beyond current business units [14]