Long-term holders (LTHs) sold 300,000 $BTC worth $33 billion in October.This is the most aggressive selling from LTHs since December 2024. https://t.co/TsB7k6gh1J ...

4️⃣ Why it matters:🔹 Institutional flows from ETFs and funds are absorbing sell-pressure🔹 Supply held by long-term holders remains near record highs🔹 Miner capitulation hasn’t appearedOf course, market cycles evolve. Maybe this time, the rhythm stretches. Maybe we’re still mid-cycle. ...

Market Dynamics - Bitcoin has been rangebound for over ten weeks, influenced by long-term holders distributing and institutions accumulating, creating a deadlock [1][2][3] - Long-term holders (LTHs) started distributing Bitcoin when it broke above $110,000, but this distribution has decelerated recently [4][5] - Institutions, including ETF buyers and treasury companies, are aggressively buying Bitcoin, offsetting the supply from long-term holders [6] - Seasonality favors Bitcoin, with October and November historically being its two strongest months, averaging returns of +22.9% and +35.7% respectively [1][7] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve (Fed) has begun an easing cycle, cutting policy rates, which historically benefits Bitcoin as investors venture out on the risk curve [1][8] - Loosening credit conditions and a resilient economy are likely to drive another explosive leg higher for Bitcoin in Q4 [8][10] Technical Analysis - Long-term holder distribution is cooling, with net outflows from LTH supply slowing down [6] - Bitcoin's consolidation period suggests a potential for a violent breakout, with the odds favoring another leg higher in Q4 [10]

Bitcoin Holding - Long-term holders now hold 74% of the total Bitcoin supply [1] - This represents a 15-year high in the percentage of Bitcoin held by long-term holders [1]

Market Dynamics & Investment Strategy - The analysis of HODL waves reveals the percentage of Bitcoin supply that has remained unused in transactions for specific durations [2] - Short-term holders (holding for less than 6 months) often enter during market mania phases and exit quickly when the hype subsides [4][5] - Long-term holders tend to accumulate Bitcoin when the price is stagnant and decrease their holdings during bull runs, selling to short-term holders [7][8][9] - Short-term holder peaks often coincide with peaks in Bitcoin's price [9] - Long-term holders accumulate throughout bear markets, even during significant price drops (e g 60-70%), and sell when the bull market arrives [10][11] - Similar HODL wave analysis can be applied to other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum [13] Holder Behavior - Short-term holders often buy at market tops and capitulate during downturns [12] - Long-term holders demonstrate patience, accumulating during bear markets and profiting during bull markets [10][11] Data Insights - Less than 1-2% of the total Bitcoin supply is held for less than a day [3] - Approximately 17% of the Bitcoin supply is held for between 6 months and 1 year [3]