Begless Nation, this is Ryan Sean Adams. I have Michael Nato here from the Defi Report on the podcast today. Uh Michael, we are fresh back from holidays, man. How are your holidays? How was Thanksgiving? Did you get any weird crypto questions from your family? >> Uh a fantastic Thanksgiving. I appreciate you asking. I'm uh I'm actually on the road right now down in Florida. Um but no, had a nice little break. Talked a little bit about crypto with the family. My dad's uh flying high. He's actually more of a ...

🚨 UPDATE: Long-term holders are selling 45K $ETH/day, highest since Feb 2021. If it persists, the bear-flag target near $2.5K stays in play. https://t.co/x1TI5rcLMU ...

Long-term holders (LTHs) sold 300,000 $BTC worth $33 billion in October.This is the most aggressive selling from LTHs since December 2024. https://t.co/TsB7k6gh1J ...

4️⃣ Why it matters:🔹 Institutional flows from ETFs and funds are absorbing sell-pressure🔹 Supply held by long-term holders remains near record highs🔹 Miner capitulation hasn’t appearedOf course, market cycles evolve. Maybe this time, the rhythm stretches. Maybe we’re still mid-cycle. ...

Market Dynamics - Bitcoin has been rangebound for over ten weeks, influenced by long-term holders distributing and institutions accumulating, creating a deadlock [1][2][3] - Long-term holders (LTHs) started distributing Bitcoin when it broke above $110,000, but this distribution has decelerated recently [4][5] - Institutions, including ETF buyers and treasury companies, are aggressively buying Bitcoin, offsetting the supply from long-term holders [6] - Seasonality favors Bitcoin, with October and November historically being its two strongest months, averaging returns of +22.9% and +35.7% respectively [1][7] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve (Fed) has begun an easing cycle, cutting policy rates, which historically benefits Bitcoin as investors venture out on the risk curve [1][8] - Loosening credit conditions and a resilient economy are likely to drive another explosive leg higher for Bitcoin in Q4 [8][10] Technical Analysis - Long-term holder distribution is cooling, with net outflows from LTH supply slowing down [6] - Bitcoin's consolidation period suggests a potential for a violent breakout, with the odds favoring another leg higher in Q4 [10]

Bitcoin Holding - Long-term holders now hold 74% of the total Bitcoin supply [1] - This represents a 15-year high in the percentage of Bitcoin held by long-term holders [1]

Market Dynamics & Investment Strategy - The analysis of HODL waves reveals the percentage of Bitcoin supply that has remained unused in transactions for specific durations [2] - Short-term holders (holding for less than 6 months) often enter during market mania phases and exit quickly when the hype subsides [4][5] - Long-term holders tend to accumulate Bitcoin when the price is stagnant and decrease their holdings during bull runs, selling to short-term holders [7][8][9] - Short-term holder peaks often coincide with peaks in Bitcoin's price [9] - Long-term holders accumulate throughout bear markets, even during significant price drops (e g 60-70%), and sell when the bull market arrives [10][11] - Similar HODL wave analysis can be applied to other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum [13] Holder Behavior - Short-term holders often buy at market tops and capitulate during downturns [12] - Long-term holders demonstrate patience, accumulating during bear markets and profiting during bull markets [10][11] Data Insights - Less than 1-2% of the total Bitcoin supply is held for less than a day [3] - Approximately 17% of the Bitcoin supply is held for between 6 months and 1 year [3]