Join iREIT on Alpha today to get the most in-depth research that includes REITs, mREITs, Preferreds, BDCs, MLPs, ETFs, and other income alternatives. 438 testimonials and most are 5 stars. Nothing to lose with our FREE 2-week trial .Last year, I started using some Goldman Sachs research in my outlook, as the investment bank made the case for a “lost decade.” Their view was based on the market’s elevated valuation, which could offset earningsLeo Nelissen is a long-term investor and macro-focused strategist w ...

Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data came in below expectations, indicating that inflation is not accelerating and is moving towards the Federal Reserve's target of 2.0% [1][2] - The overall inflation rate is reported at 2.7% year-over-year, with core CPI at 2.6%, both figures slightly below forecasts [7] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current interest rate policy in the near term, with a "wait-and-see" approach expected to continue [3][4] Future Rate Cuts and Fed Chair Nomination - Market expectations suggest that the first potential interest rate cut could occur in June, with a 47% probability of a 25-basis-point cut [5] - Louis Navellier predicts at least two additional interest rate cuts in 2026, contingent on the confirmation of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair [6][8] - The nomination process for the next Fed Chair is competitive, with concerns about maintaining the Fed's independence amid political pressures [9][10] Market Valuation Concerns - The CAPE Ratio ended the year at 40, historically indicating negative 10-year real returns when above this level [16][17] - Elevated valuations and narrow market leadership could lead to stagnation in returns, reminiscent of the "Lost Decade" from 2000 to 2009 [18][19] - A shift from a "buy-and-hold" strategy to a selective, "sniper" approach may be necessary to navigate potential market challenges [24] Investment Strategies - The Seasonality Tool developed by TradeSmith identifies specific periods when stocks tend to rise or fall, providing a strategic advantage in volatile markets [20][21] - Staying nimble and opportunistic in investment strategies may be crucial for achieving financial goals in the current market environment [25]

Market Outlook - A growing concern among Wall Street forecasters is the potential for the US stock market to be flat for the next decade, despite recent gains [1][6] - The S&P 500 is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 27, significantly above the 5-year average range of 19.5-25.4, indicating high valuations [2] - Analysts are predicting a "lost decade" for stocks, where the US market may see near-zero returns or underperform compared to global markets [2][6] Performance Projections - Bank of America forecasts a slight decline of 0.1% for the S&P 500 over the next decade, contrasting sharply with the historical average annual gain of 10.5% since the 1950s [3] - The average returns for the S&P 500 after three consecutive years of over 15% growth are typically 2.3 percentage points lower than the average annual return, suggesting challenging conditions ahead [4] - Apollo's chief economist anticipates the S&P 500 will remain relatively flat for the next 10 years, based on current forward price-to-earnings ratios [5]

Market Trends & Investment Risks - Global investors face steep losses in China's property market after investing billions [1] - Concerns are rising about a potential "lost decade" in China's property market [1]

Market Trends & Investment Risks - Global investors face potential steep losses in China's property market after investing billions [1] - The situation raises fears of a "lost decade" in the Chinese property sector [1]