Lawmakers in California at both the state and federal levels are warning that refinery closures could push prices higher while leaving the state more dependent on foreign oil. At the center of the warning is the planned shutdown of two major refineries: Valero’s Benicia facility and Phillips 66’s Los Angeles plant. Together, the closures would eliminate nearly 20% of California’s in-state refining capacity, according to Reps. Vince Fong and Stan Ellis, both Republicans from Bakersfield. Valero, which ha ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for Q2 2025 were $52.2 million, an increase of $9.3 million from Q1 2025, primarily due to biodiesel orders in India [4] - Operating loss improved by $4.9 million compared to Q2 2024, reflecting reduced selling, general and administrative expenses [5] - Net loss was $23.4 million, roughly flat compared to Q2 2024 after adjusting for nonrecurring charges [5] - Cash at year-end was $1.6 million following $3.6 million of investment in carbon intensity reduction and dairy renewable natural gas production expansion [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - California Dairy Renewable Natural Gas recognized $3.1 million in revenue from 11 operating digesters during Q2 2025 [5] - Ethanol production in California decreased to 13.8 million gallons to maximize margins, but production was recently increased to meet market demand [11] - Biodiesel deliveries to Indian government oil marketing companies resumed in April, generating $11.9 million in revenue during Q2 2025 [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - LCFS credit prices increased from about $42 to approximately $60 in the past month, with a current cap of $268 for 2025 [10] - The California Air Resources Board (CARB) approved seven dairy pathways with a blended negative carbon intensity score, unlocking 120% more LCFS credit revenue [8] - The U.S. ethanol market could expand by over 5 billion gallons per year if E15 gasoline is approved in all states, significantly impacting demand [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on scaling up renewable natural gas production, targeting a capacity of 550,000 MMBtu this year and 1,000,000 MMBtu by 2026 [7] - Aemetis is actively pursuing an IPO for its India subsidiary in early 2026, with plans to expand into ethanol production supported by government policies [12] - The company is working on refinancing efforts to improve its capital structure and reduce debt [6][54] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects multiple revenue streams from India, LCFS credits, and federal tax incentives to ramp up as the year progresses, positioning the company for a stronger 2025 [6] - The company anticipates that the amendments to the LCFS program will lead to increased credit prices and a tightening supply, benefiting its operations [15] - Management expressed optimism about the growth of the biofuels and biogas industries due to supportive federal and state policies [14][20] Other Important Information - The company has received $20 million in grants and tax credits to fund a mechanical vapor recompression system expected to add $32 million in annual cash flow starting in 2026 [11] - Aemetis has sold $83 million in investment tax credits related to its RNG facilities, receiving approximately $70 million in cash [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of CARB approval on EBITDA - Management confirmed that seven dairies are approved, with four more pending, and the financial impact is correlated with LCFS credit prices [23][25] Question: D3 RINs demand outlook - Management noted that there is a universal opinion that D3 RINs are being understated and emphasized the importance of the renewable fuel standard [27][28] Question: Update on 45Z tax credits - Management indicated that updates to the GREET model could allow for the generation of 45Z credits soon, with expectations for significant revenue from these credits [34][36] Question: Monetization strategy for production tax credits - Management expects 45Z credits to become a recurring quarterly revenue item, with catch-up revenue anticipated in Q3 2025 [48] Question: Progress on India IPO - Management confirmed that the new CFO is on board and the process is underway, with public filing documents expected this fall [50][51] Question: Refinancing process status - Management stated they are deep into the refinancing process, with expectations to complete due diligence and documentation by August [64][66]

Core Insights - Aemetis, Inc. has received approval from the California Air Resources Board for seven dairy digesters under the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, effective January 1, 2025, with an average carbon intensity of -384 [1][2] - The approval is expected to double the number of LCFS credits generated by these digesters, enhancing Aemetis' renewable natural gas production capabilities [2] - Aemetis is actively expanding its renewable energy projects, including new dairy digesters, an ethanol plant, a carbon sequestration project, and a sustainable aviation fuel facility [3][4] Group 1: Company Developments - The seven approved pathways will allow Aemetis to immediately increase its LCFS credit quantity for RNG produced in the first quarter of 2025 [2] - Aemetis operates eleven digesters and is completing a four-dairy cluster digester, with additional pathway filings expected to be approved quickly [2] - The company is focused on innovative technologies to replace petroleum products and reduce greenhouse gas emissions [4] Group 2: Project Highlights - New dairy digesters are projected to generate over 1 million MMBtu per year of renewable natural gas [3] - The Keyes ethanol plant's mechanical vapor recompression system is anticipated to generate an additional $32 million in annual cash flow starting in 2026 [3] - The Riverbank carbon sequestration project aims to inject 1.4 million tons of CO2 underground annually [3] - Aemetis is developing a biorefinery in California for sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel, utilizing renewable hydrogen and hydroelectric power [4]

Core Insights - Aemetis Biogas completed $1.6 million in sales of California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits and federal D3 Renewable Identification Numbers (D3 RINs) in April 2025 [2] - The company expects significant growth in LCFS credits due to the approval of seven dairy digesters, which are projected to generate credits with an average carbon intensity lower than -350, representing an increase of over 120% compared to the default rate of -150 [3][4] Financial Performance - Aemetis has generated $70 million from the sale of $83 million in Section 48 investment tax credits over the past 18 months, with additional sales expected as more dairy digesters come online [5] - Starting January 2025, Aemetis Biogas began generating 45Z production tax credits from dairy RNG production, with initial sales anticipated in summer 2025 [6] Operational Developments - The company has signed agreements with 50 dairies and currently operates 11 digesters processing waste from 12 dairies, with plans to bring four more dairies online in Q2 2025 [4] - Aemetis has installed 36 miles of biogas pipeline, with environmental approval for an additional 60 miles to be installed as more digesters are completed [4] Market Outlook - The expected adoption of 20 years of low carbon biofuel mandates by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) is anticipated to rapidly increase the value of LCFS credits [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for the year ended December 31, 2024, were $268 million, up from $187 million in 2023, with all three segments reporting increases [7] - Cost of goods sold increased from $184.7 million in 2023 to $268.2 million in 2024, aligning with revenue changes [8] - Net loss was $87.5 million for 2024, compared to a net loss of $46.4 million in 2023 [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - California ethanol revenue increased by $57.7 million, India biodiesel revenue increased by $15.7 million, and California renewable natural gas revenue increased by $7.6 million [8] - The dairy renewable natural gas segment accounted for $5.4 million of gross profit, primarily from the sale of environmental attributes [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The price of California LCFS credits increased from $44 to $75 by February 2025, but a recent delay in implementation caused a 30% decrease in prices [15][16] - The expected increase in LCFS credit prices could reach $200 per ton, significantly benefiting Aemetis' biogas and ethanol businesses [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Aemetis aims to benefit from supportive public policies for domestic energy producers, focusing on biogas, ethanol, and biodiesel growth [12] - The company is preparing for an IPO of its India biodiesel business, expected in late 2025 or early 2026, contingent on new OMC orders [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the REAP program and expects approvals for new funding soon [45][46] - The company anticipates that the approval of E15 blends will significantly expand the U.S. ethanol market by up to 50% [22][24] Other Important Information - Capital expenditures for carbon intensity reduction projects were $20.3 million in 2024, with ongoing projects aimed at increasing production capacity [10] - Aemetis has received conditional commitments for $75 million in USDA guaranteed loans for biogas digester construction [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence levels around refinancing given government spending reductions - Management has high confidence in the REAP program and expects approvals soon [45][46] Question: Insight into the OAL's request for revisions and expected delays - The complexity of the LCFS legislation led to the OAL's request for clarifications, causing a potential 120-day delay [57][58] Question: Status of India biodiesel production and OMC tender process - A new tender is expected to be issued soon, with significant inventory available for initial shipments [64][65] Question: Expected spending plans for 2025 amid regulatory turbulence - Aemetis plans a $75 million capital budget supported by USDA loans and grants, with an acceleration in biogas investments [78][79] Question: Impact of E15 approvals on ethanol margins - E15 adoption is expected to be gradual, with significant margin improvements anticipated by 2027 [84][90] Question: Timing of CARB policy implementation - Management estimates a 2-3 month timeline for CARB policy implementation, with no definitive endpoint [92] Question: Drivers of negative EBITDA results in Q4 - Oversupply and high corn prices were significant factors, but operational adjustments are expected to improve Q1 performance [98][100] Question: Expectations on D3 RVO going forward - The EPA's recent actions suggest a lower D3 RIN mandate for 2024, impacting future investment growth [106][112]