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中国银行行业 - 11 月社会融资规模增长掩盖了贷款的内在疲软-China Banks_ Nov TSF growth masks underlying loan weakness
2025-12-15 01:55
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of **China's banking sector** in November 2025, focusing on **Total Social Financing (TSF)** and loan growth metrics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **New TSF Growth**: - New TSF in November 2025 was **Rmb 2.5 trillion**, an increase from **Rmb 2.3 trillion** in November 2024. This growth was primarily driven by: - A rise in corporate bond issuance, which increased by **Rmb 417 billion** month-over-month, compared to **Rmb 238 billion** in November 2024. - Trust loans and bank acceptances also saw increases of **Rmb 84 billion** and **Rmb 149 billion**, respectively, compared to **Rmb 9 billion** and **Rmb 91 billion** in November 2024. - Negative contributors included a decrease in government bond issuance (**Rmb 1.2 trillion** vs. **Rmb 1.3 trillion** in November 2024) and weaker credit demand, with an increase of only **Rmb 0.4 trillion** in Rmb loans to the real economy, down from **Rmb 0.5 trillion** in November 2024 [1][2][3]. 2. **Loan Performance**: - New loans totaled **Rmb 0.4 trillion** in November 2025, down from **Rmb 0.6 trillion** in November 2024. This included: - A decline in retail loans by **Rmb 206 billion** compared to an increase of **Rmb 270 billion** in November 2024. - Corporate loans increased by **Rmb 610 billion**, up from **Rmb 252 billion** in November 2024, indicating a shift towards stronger corporate loan growth despite overall weak credit demand [2]. 3. **Deposit Trends**: - New deposits rose by **Rmb 1.4 trillion**, down from **Rmb 2.2 trillion** in November 2024. Within this: - Retail deposits increased by **Rmb 0.7 trillion**, compared to **Rmb 0.8 trillion** in November 2024. - Non-bank financial institution (FI) deposits were **Rmb 80 billion**, down from **Rmb 180 billion** in November 2024. - The data suggests a temporary reversal in deposit migration to non-deposit products, reflecting a lowered risk appetite among households amid capital market volatility [3]. 4. **Monetary Growth Rates**: - M1 and M2 growth rates stood at **4.9%** and **8%** year-over-year, respectively, slower than **6.2%** and **8.2%** in November 2024, likely due to a high base effect from the previous year [3]. Additional Important Insights - The overall credit demand remains weak, primarily due to continued weak consumption and property sales, although there was some sequential improvement in corporate loan growth, aligning with banks' guidance from post-3Q NDR meetings [2]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring these trends as they may indicate broader economic conditions and potential investment opportunities or risks within the banking sector [1][2][3].